S & P 500 to challenge the "new normal" and the Rally of 17%, says Barish of Cambiar

Energy and industrial companies will rise next year, prompting an increase of 17 percent in 500 of Standard & Poor's from its current level, according to Brian Cambiar Investors LLC Barish.

Next year will be marked by a return of multi-speed ", as industries weakened by the recession, finance companies, lagging behind those who are healthy and have the cheap valuations, Barish said in an interview. He said stocks were performing better than expected under the "new normal" theory of economics led by Pacific Investment Management Co., owner of the largest bond fund in the world, they said that growth will be relatively slow in the coming years.

"The bleeding has stopped," said Barish, who oversees $ 5.7 billion in assets as president of Denver-based Change, including aggressive fund to Value Change, which has beaten 99 percent of peers last year. "The market is very low multiple on revenue, and does not seem as big of a stretch for me to see that number increase."

The S & P 500 has risen 75 percent since its low in March 2009 to yesterday's closing level of 1180.55 as trust income and the U.S. economy has increased. Its price-earnings ratio is 15, below the average of 16.4 in the data compiled by Bloomberg that date back to 1954.

The S & P 500 will rise to 1,300 on 30 June 1380 at the end of next year, based on the weighted average of the estimates of nine analysts Cambiar. The average forecast of six strategists surveyed by Bloomberg is an increase to 1,337 in the S & P 500 in late 2011.

No "new normal"

Structural problems affecting the U.S. and European economies that led to the "new normal" prediction Pimco are "more of a buyer of the bonds issue to the problem of a buyer's equity," he said.

"If the stock market were a lot of commercial REITs, which have a big argument," he said. "We must not confuse the stock market to the U.S. economy. In particular, outside the U.S., a lot of structural problems are simply not there, and U.S. companies get a lot of its revenue from outside the country. "

Mark Porterfield, a spokesman for Pimco, did not return a request for comment sent by voice mail and email.

Barish said there will be a "multi-speed" market in 2011, as shares in industries such as energy, consumer products and progress in agriculture, because "the revenue profile for the companies is broken back to where it was before the Great Depression. " financial and real estate companies may suffer because "it takes years, if not, sometimes decades, to the economic outlook associated with bubbles to recover," he said.

'Battered' Investors

Barish said he believes the stock market's advance will be restricted until there is a change in asset allocation.

"I think what people need to get abused in the bond market to make a difference in the stock market," he said. "People were blindfolded when he looked to sovereign debt and are now off the blinders" with Greece and Ireland ransom of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, and others such as Portugal and Spain, see their credit ratings cutting and fiscal stability into question.

Attempts by the Federal Reserve to boost the economy through asset purchases tend to feed inflation, he said. An inflation rate above the yield on Treasury two years, which was 0.45 percent yesterday, could cause a decrease in the real value of money, he said.

Energy is "the most interesting sector for 2011, Barish said, because they are still recovering from the oil spill BP Plc in the Gulf of Mexico, who created" the sale of short-sighted "of stocks in the industry. Cambiar owns shares of Halliburton Co., Ltd. Apache and Repsol YPF SA, Barish said, and his firm sees oil at 94 dollars a barrel next year.

Financial Outlook

Financial companies have a "very poor" revenue forecast due to restrictions on parts of its business, as the securitization of loans and credit cards they offer, which prompted them during the bubble, "said Barish.

"We own the Bank of America Corp., not because we like it, but because it is selling for less than 60 percent of book value," said Barish. "I would not touch the investment banks" as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Change has been "almost totally exposed to the banks since October 2007," came the month the S & P 500 its record of 1565.15.

Regional banks may be attractive in a case by case basis, "said Barish, most of which he sees as a good investment to have poor grades. He said many of the banks that performed well had been through crises in recent decades, as Texas banks that were in the 1980's because companies learn from what happened.

Balance Technology

"It shows the value of human experience," said Barish.

Technology companies have too much cash on their balance sheets, and avoid using it to repurchase because "no work," said Barish. He cited Cisco Systems Inc. and Apple Inc. as companies war chests that are "simply ridiculous" because they are very large.

"The problem with buybacks is that they are almost always the wrong time" because it is often done when the prices are relatively high,''said Barish.

Barish said Apple advancing stock price may decrease, because "when the populations of more than $ 300 billion in market capitalization, they tend not to stay there, with the exception of Exxon Mobil Corp. Apple, which has soared by 48 percent this year, has a market value at yesterday's close of $ 285 million.

Intel, Microsoft Corp. and Dell Inc. could suffer next year due to the shift toward smaller devices, laptops powered by Apple iPad will be very damaging to the PC market, "said Barish.