Welcome to our website

Welcome in Your Blogger For Economy , Currency , Stocks and Bonds.

Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Chinese executives are reducing support for a stronger yuan



Chinese executives are reducing support for a stronger yuan, as U.S. critics easing to weaken the dollar and fueling asset bubbles in emerging market economies.

Shen Wenrong, president of Jiangsu Shagang Group Co., the nation's largest private steelmaker, said China should allow only a "token" recognition while the U.S. is "printing money to fuel inflation." Ma Weihua, executive director of China Merchants Bank Co.., Said the yuan should not go "too fast" and the Federal Reserve should show more restraint after announcing plans to buy 600 billion U.S. dollars of Treasury bonds. Jingjiang Xia, general manager of Topshow Outdoor Products Co., which makes baseball caps with logos of companies, said the government will not compromise growth more rapid exchange earnings.

Calls to limit the appreciation of Chinese executives, which in March supported an end to a two-year dollar link, reflecting the concern of the economic expansion may decrease as the central bank raises interest rates to cool inflation rapidly since 2008. Yuan forward contracts show traders are betting the currency will stop before the visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to Washington next month and up by 2.1 percent next year.

"We expect the yuan to strengthen, but do not want the overly rapid pace of appreciation," Ma told China Merchants, the sixth largest bank by market value, in an interview on Dec. 17 in Beijing. "The U.S. is not taking responsibility. He called on China to adjust its yuan policy, but everyone is suffering from its measures of flexibility."

Forward Rates

Delivery within a month was trading at 6.6180 per dollar as of 11:41 am in Hong Kong, indicating little change from the spot rate of 6.6229. twelve-month contracts are stronger in 6.4863. Analysts predict that the yuan to appreciate another 5.5 to 6.28 percent in late 2011.

China's central bank allowed the currency to rise to 4.5 percent next year, said Rajeev De Mello, head of Asia investment in Singapore in Western Asset Management Co. The yuan has risen 3.1 percent since June 21, when the government ended a policy of fixing the exchange rate at about 6.83 per dollar to protect exporters during the global financial crisis. Thirty U.S. senators requested that the yuan is "appreciate significantly" before Hu's trip, in a letter on December 6 Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan.

'Ritmo faster "

"The sounds of U.S. executives probably did not worry China Chinese currency to appreciate more rapidly," said De Mello at Western Asset, which oversees 469 billion U.S. dollars of funds. "A currency appreciation would be too fast for the local economy as it has already been a lot of adjustment policies in place."

Shen, based in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Shagang, said the government must balance to maintain export competitiveness and reducing purchasing costs of raw materials. imports of iron ore rose 26 percent last month to the second highest level this year, according to government data.

"China should not walk appreciation," said Shen. "As a major buyer of iron ore, has some benefits. But the benefits are limited."

Topshow

Xia in Yangzhou, Jiangsu, based in Topshow said his company raised prices of their hats by 3 percent to account for the yuan in the second half.

"The yuan's appreciation will be gradual," he said in an interview Dec. 22. "The central government clearly understands that a stronger yuan can do to the economy of China. I hope not risk that."

Executives at companies targeting the Chinese market, including Beijing-based computer maker Lenovo Group Ltd., a Shanghai-based China Eastern Airlines Corp. and China Merchants Bank, said in March that a stronger currency would reduce costs imports, increasing the purchasing power of consumers and promote world trade by currency.

buying dollars to weaken the yuan has boosted China's foreign exchange reserves at 2.65 trillion U.S. dollars and flooded the financial system with yuan. The trade surplus exceeded U.S. $ 20 billion for the fifth time in the sixth month of November as overseas sales rose 35 percent from the previous year, the customs agency said Dec. 10.

'Reality'

"Chinese companies have to face the reality of a kind of yuan to rise as the economy grows rapidly and increase foreign exchange reserves," said Zhang Wei, vice director of China Chamber of International Commerce, an organization run by the government to represent exporters and importers, told reporters on 17 December in Beijing. "They should also receive everything needed for the growing international pressure on China to allow the yuan to appreciate."

The People's Bank of China raised its benchmark rate for one-year deposits by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point, on 25 December at 2.75 percent below the November inflation rate of 5.1 percent. The spread between the savings rate and its equivalent in U.S. came to 197 basis points this week, the most since at least 1996, increasing the attractiveness of holding assets yuan.

The economy grew 9.6 percent in the third quarter last year, after growing 10.3 percent in the second quarter and 11.9 percent in the first.

Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao told reporters in Beijing on November 8 Fed's asset purchases could "shock" of emerging markets by flooding the capital.

Dollar Index

Emerging markets funds have taken action on a record of 92.5 billion U.S. dollars and bond mutual funds in developing economies the income of 52.5 billion U.S. dollars this year, EPFR Global, a research firm Cambridge, based in Massachusetts, said last week.

So far, Fed policy has not led to a weaker dollar or faster inflation in the country.

IntercontinentalExchange Inc. 's dollar index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, is up 5 percent from 03 November, when the Fed announced the second round of purchases of debt under its plan of quantitative easing. U.S. consumer prices increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in 2011, compared with a rate of 1.6 percent in 2010.

A "stable" evaluation is sufficient to promote the use of yuan in trade and global finance, Hong Weipeng, head of fixed income investments Haitong International Asset Management, said in an interview Dec. 22 in Hong Kong. The unit of China's largest brokerage by assets to establish a fund of 5 billion yuan (754 million U.S. dollars) in August, which invests in bonds renminbi offshore.

Promote stability

"Investors do not want to see the yuan rise 10 percent a month and then go down by 20 percent next year," he said. "In the short term, if global financial markets become more volatile, either due to the debt crisis of the European emerging markets or face higher inflation, then that can slow the yuan's appreciation."

Yuan settlements trade increased 160 percent in the third quarter from three months to 126.5 billion yuan, the central bank said on 2 November.

Sinosteel Corp., the nation's largest iron ore trader, favors those transactions, because of the potential gains in local currency, the president Tianwei Huang said. Ma at the China Merchants Bank said, although the bank is profiting from this business, "too fast" for a finding would be harmful.

"The trend for the yuan to rise is, without doubt, as China's economy has grown rapidly and it is impossible that the country will always maintain as large foreign exchange reserves and trade surplus," he said. "But if the appreciation is very fast, many Chinese companies may go bankrupt."

India M & A may exceed the record 71 billion U.S. dollars this year of the agreements

India M & A in 2011 may exceed the record 71 billion U.S. dollars this year of the agreements, led by oil and gas, metals and mining companies, according to M & A bankers like Topsy Standard Chartered Plc Mateo .

$ 10,700,000,000 billionaire Sunil Mittal's acquisition of mobile operators in Africa was an almost fourfold increase in acquisitions this year exceeded 2,007 offers from 69 billion.

"Large Indian corporations are going through a growth phase: it is thought that there are plenty of opportunities, they think they have access to capital", 35 years old, Mathew, CEO of M & A for India, said in an interview Dec. 27. The London-based bank rose 13 places to number two among India acquisition advisers this year, its highest level. "They are taking advantage of positive sentiment to carry out long-term strategic transactions," he said.

Companies in Asia-Pacific, including India and China are expected to be more buyers purchasing in 2011 and offers attractive valuations of national unity and global competition .
Foreign firms may guide the Indian pharmaceutical companies and consumers and local companies seeking natural resources, said Bank of America Corp., the No. 3 spot.

'Highly active'

"Hotel output remains highly active, as the international company valuations are still relatively depressed, and Indian companies have access to debt and equity capital", Saurabh Agrawal, director of 41 years of age, banking India's investment in Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America, wrote in an e-mail response to questions on 14 December. "Local and incoming offers will take place."

cross-border deals rose to a record 59.2 billion U.S. dollars in India this year, after New Delhi Mittal Bharti Airtel Ltd. in March agreed to buy assets Zain Africa for $ 10.7 billion. Out of mergers and acquisitions accounted for 74 percent of that volume.

The acquisition spree in India, China and Brazil contrasts with the slowdown in global tenders. Mergers worldwide have declined 46 percent between 2007 and the record. In the U.S., the world's largest market, volumes are 51 percent lower, and levels in Europe have fallen by 59 percent.

Pending deals

Pending jobs in India, including the sale of a controlling stake in Mumbai-based software maker and Patni Computer Systems Ltd. 's Honda Motor Co. held in New Delhi, Hero Honda Motors Ltd. equity firms private and Carlyle Group are bidding to acquire the shares, people familiar with the matter have said.

A group of state enterprises hired Citigroup Inc. last week to prepare a bid for Sydney Ltd., based Riversdale Mining, the fight against a 3.9 billion U.S. dollars (3.9 billion) offer to host London, Rio Tinto Group.

"The funds will be a big focus, with companies from India looking to consolidate its position in oil and gas, metals and mining," Mathew said Standard Chartered. "There will be a particular focus on India's public sector companies seeking oil assets in international and Indian companies looking to acquire the assets of iron ore and coal for their steel operations and power. "

Natural resources and telecommunications will continue to drive mergers and acquisitions, said Frank Hancock, managing director of corporate finance at Barclays Capital in Mumbai. Telecom acquisitions accounted for 26 percent of deals in India this year, while energy companies and mining accounted for another 30 percent.

Rules of Acquisition

A proposed revision of India's M & A rules also may stoke interest in national objectives, Hancock, 50, said in an e-mail Dec. 14. Barclays is ranked No. 4 in acquisitions in India, its highest ever position.

"While border still represent 70 percent of the cake, the balance between input and output will become more uniform," said Hancock. The new regulations "will make it easier for a listed company to be responsible and removed from the list since then."

A panel formed by the capital market regulator in India in July recommended increasing the threshold level of participation that would trigger mandatory open offers to 25 percent from 15 percent. Shareholders who already has more than 25 percent may also offer to buy 10 percent, half of the current requirements.

India Aims

Facilitate the limits of foreign direct investment also strengthens the appetite foreign companies' acquisition targets for India, Sameer Nath, managing director and head of mergers and acquisitions in the local unit of Citigroup, said in an emailed response to December 20 questions. New York, Citigroup is No. 6 among the advisers of purchase in India this year.

"The liberalization of FDI in the context of a sensible way would be positive for all parties," said Nath. Foreign companies may look to India for its telecommunications, healthcare and consumer industries, while local businesses will be overseas oil and gas, metals, mining and technology assets, he said.

Funding remains an important prerequisite for the acquisition in the nation, including bankers, said Nath. Output deals are particularly dependent on funds, Agrawal wrote.

A decline in borrowing costs has allowed Indian firms to substitute cheaper debt financing, putting them in position now to be more aggressive in acquisitions, "said Ganeshan Murugaiyan, managing director and head of investment banking in the local unit of UBS AG. The Swiss bank was ranked No. 7 this year in advising on acquisitions in India.

"The environment of benign debt markets, especially the second half of 2010, has helped many corporations to refinance debt or raise funds at attractive long-term costs," wrote Murugaiyan, 37, Dec. 14 . "Against this background, we expect Indian companies to be more greedy of next year."

China may need to build more affordable housing next year

China may need to build more affordable housing next year provided 10 million units as the target can not be "sufficient" to meet national demand, according to the International Strategy and Investment Group.

The Government plans to almost double the supply of affordable housing 2011 of 5.8 million units this year, as it introduces more measures to curb property speculation, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said in a radio program on 26 December.

"During the last decade, a delay of about 20 million homes have to be satisfied," said Donald Straszheim, director of Los Angeles, research in China in the ISI, which ranked first in the categories of macro and Economics survey by Institutional Investor magazine last year.

Increasing the supply of housing is one of the measures China took this year to curb housing prices. Property values up 18 months in November after the government suspended the mortgages for the purchase of a third country and the commitment to accelerate the trials of the property tax. In October, the central bank raised interest rates for the first time in three years and increased borrowing costs again on 25 December.

China also stressed the construction of social housing in its annual economic powerhouse earlier this month that sets out plans for next year, and ordered local governments to set their own targets for these households with approach to the construction of public rental housing.

Major inputs

The country has 3.7 million of the 5.8 million low-cost housing by 2010, said Wen. The government is likely to be completed 75 percent of its goal next year because "demand for commodities, labor, the ability to plan and execute, with the space, coordination of subcontractors and tickets will be significant," said Straszheim.

The increase in China's social housing will boost the nation's economic growth by one percentage point to 0.2 per year, according to Straszheim. "This is important, but not large enough to change the general course of the economy," he said in an emailed response to questions yesterday afternoon.

Only 6 percent of Chinese urban households living in social housing, including low-rent houses and apartments with controlled prices, according to a report from China International Capital Corp. in June. The government offers land that costs less than market value, and developers are forced to sell homes at regulated prices.

China's social housing is a key investment area in the government's five year economic plan, and that bodes well for the cement and machinery, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in November.

$ 71 billion investment

China invested 470 billion yuan ($ 71 billion) in social housing construction this year, representing 60 percent of the budget year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of 20 September, said a statement. China also attaches a subsidy of 69.2 billion yuan for the construction of these homes this year, the ministry said.

The social housing scheme may add 1.5 percentage points to economic growth in China in 2010 and 2011, Bank of America Corp. 's unit of Merrill Lynch said in a report of 15 December. The brokerage estimates that 5.8 million units, including 3 million new homes and 2.8 million renovated apartments, will cost 700 billion yuan this year. The 10 million next year planned to add another 1.3 billion yuan, he said.

Shanghai plans to 15 million square feet of affordable housing in 2011, up 25 percent this year, support from the city of Housing and Building Management Office, said on 24 December. The port city of Tianjin in northeastern China hopes that 190,000 of these households next year, the state news agency Xinhua reported on 27 December.

China's building boom continues "without ceasing" and has even increased since the government enacted policies to cool speculation, Jim Chanos, the hedge fund manager who predicted that the market may crash after 2010, said an interview Television earlier this month. Many of the policies in China have been designed to be "skirt", she said, and reiterated its view that China is in a "treadmill to hell."

Brazil raised its tariffs on toy imports from China

Brazil raised its tariffs on toy imports from China in a bid to help the South American country, manufacturers of administrative officers affected by an increase of 37 percent of the real against the yuan over the past two years.

Tariffs on 14 types of toys ranging from dolls and puzzles for tricycles and electric train sets will increase to 35 percent from 20 percent until late 2011, the Chamber of Foreign Trade said in an emailed statement yesterday .

The chamber said it was acting at the request of toy manufacturers to help Brazil, Äúfight, AU increased imports, 90 percent of whom come from China. The higher tariffs affect goods whose imports totaled 290 million U.S. dollars between January and November this year, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

China, the Ministry of Commerce AM "No, AOT respond to a faxed request for phone calls and comments were not a spokesman, TWA said.

Brazilian imports of Chinese products in the 12 months to August increased 37 percent to $ 21,400,000,000, of $ 15 billion throughout 2009, according to a study published this month by Brazil, the AM state development bank. The increase in imports from China, driven by the yuan, the rate of competitive exchange administrative officers, threatening to displace domestic sales of manufacturers from Brazil and has implications Äúimportant, the AU for the country's industrial development administrative officers, said the bank, known as BNDES.

True, the AM 37 percent gain against the yuan over the past two years is the third best performer among major currencies after the Australian dollar and South African rand. The front of 12 months without delivery suggests traders are betting the yuan will strengthen to 2.2 percent in a year of its current cash value of 6,625 per U.S. dollar.

Toy sales in Brazil will reach 3 billion reais (1.8 billion) this year, 49 percent of which come from products made abroad, according to estimates from Brazil, MA Manufacturers Association toys. In 2009, imported toys accounted for 46.8 percent of 2.7 billion reais in sales, the group said.

Lawson CEO plans to open about 10,000 stores in China in 2020 "drinks, food and magazines"



Lawson CEO Takeshi Niinami Inc. plans to open about 10,000 stores in China in 2020, selling drinks, food and magazines. To remove it, the Tokyo-based executive is packing its bags from Shanghai.

As the second largest Japanese convenience store operator plans to boost sales outlets in more than 30 times, Niinami, 51 from China, will spend a month in the country since May and in less than a year, said a press conference in Tokyo on 20 December. Lawson is also training to recruits of China in Japan to work as managers of the stores in their country of origin, where the company lags behind rival Seven & I Holdings Co. and FamilyMart Co.

"To get an idea of daily life in China and to take risks, I have to live there a couple of months," said Niinami. "Standing all time in Japan, which tend to focus only on downside risks."

Niinami plans highlight how Japanese companies have China may overtake Japan as second largest economy in the world this year as a shrinking and aging of the population is obscured growth prospects in the country. It is also an example of how executives of the nation are trying to overcome the lack of international experience as they expand abroad.

"Move Lawson shows how Japanese companies are trying to globalize," said Tsuyoshi Komori, president of the Tokyo-based consultant for Mercer Japan Ltd. "Spending time and energy that flows demonstrate China's commitment Niinami."

Lawson rose 0.7 percent to 4.035 yen at the end of three hours of negotiations in Tokyo. The shares have fallen 1.6 percent this year, compared with a 1.9 percent drop in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average.

Household expenditure

Lawson operated 318 stores in mainland China since November, according to the website of the company. The nation is Lawson's single market outside Japan, where he had 9,935 points of sale.

The momentum in China is driven in part by a decline in Japanese consumer spending, which fell in 2008 and 2009, according to figures released by the Cabinet Office.

Japan's population is declining from a peak of 127.8 million in 2004 and may hit bottom in less than 90 million in 2055, according to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.

In contrast, the number of middle income and wealthy consumers in China, the world's most populous country with more than 1.3 million people, you can almost triple to 415 million dollars in 10 years, Boston Consulting Group Inc. said November.

7-Eleven, FamilyMart

Lawson competitors have surpassed the use of growth in China. Seven & I Holdings, the world's leading convenience retailer operated 708 7-Eleven outlets in mainland China since November, said Minoru Matsumoto, a spokesman for the company. FamilyMart had 492 stores in the country, according to its website.

Lawson opened its first China store in Shanghai in 1996, according to its website. The three companies are based in Tokyo.

"To reach a goal of 10,000 stores in 2020, no single example of leadership of the CEO, but also the logistics and human resources will be needed," says Naozumi Nishimura, TIW Inc. analyst in Tokyo with a recommendation "neutral" rating on the shares of Lawson. "I'll be paying attention to the rapidly expanding and how fast to turn a profit from it."

Lawson's growth in China has been delayed by lack of human resources, Niinami said in an interview in April. An initial effort to send their Chinese employees to Japan for training proved to be too long, he said. Changing its strategy, the company began hiring and training of Chinese graduates of Japanese universities.

"The new system started three or four years, and now I think we have the resources to accelerate our business abroad," said Niinami in April.

International Experience

cross-border training and experience is also a challenge level management in Japanese companies. Japan ranked 49th among 58 countries this year on international experience for senior managers, according to the World Competitiveness Yearbook 2010 published by the IMD business school in Switzerland International.

The number of Japanese living in China almost tripled in one decade to 127,282 in October 2009, according to Japanese Foreign Ministry. Shanghai is home to 48,255, according to the ministry.

Niinami international experience includes business start trading Chinese sugar Mitsubishi Corp., a trading company based in Tokyo, said in an interview with LA 21, a monthly magazine in 2008. He is also a graduate of Harvard Business School.

He began his career with Mitsubishi, the largest shareholder in Lawson, in 1981 and became president of convenience store operator in 2002. In 2005 he was appointed CEO of Lawson.

China Gains

Under Niinami, Lawson's operating profit has increased in the last seven consecutive fiscal years. The company expects net income in the 12 months ending in February could rise to 22 billion yen (266 million) 12,600,000,000 yen last fiscal year, while revenues may fall to 430 million yen 467 200 000 000 JPY.

In China, operating profit was at a level of balance last fiscal year, according to the website of the company.

Niinami plans to send a team of officials, including company directors, in China ahead of his own arrival, said Dec. 20.

The director general is also improving speaking skills of China, said Song Wenzhou, founder of the Tokyo-based Softbrain Co. and a strategic advisor to Lawson in China.

"These days, when Mr. Niinami called me, speaking Chinese with pronunciation as well be confused with China", the song, a native of China, said in an interview Dec. 17.

After working in China may be increasingly seen as a qualification for senior executive positions in Japanese companies, as well as having served in the U.S. was a prerequisite for some, said Song.

Niinami, speaking at the conference of December 20, made the same suggestion.

"I will send the best people in our company" China said. "If they succeed, they may be in line for my job."

Suicides in India & burst out of the door covered in flames and screaming for help.

Tanda Srinivas was to rest in the courtyard of his house with two rooms in the southern Indian town Mondrai shortly after noon on Oct. 28 when his wife, Shobha, burst through the door covered in flames and screaming for help.

The mother of 30-year-old, two boys had poured 2 liters of kerosene on her and lit a match. The couple had argued bitterly the previous day about how they would repay multiple loans, including micro-credit lent him small sums of money to dozens of villagers, says Venkateshwarlu Masram, a doctor who called the ambulance.

Shobha, the heads of several groups of women borrowers, was being pressed to pay the interest on its 12,000 rupees (265 dollars) loan. Lenders were also demanding that the coverage of other women, even though the state had restricted the activities of microfinance two weeks earlier.

When Srinivas, 35, tried to snuff out the flames with a blanket, polyester clothes caught fire. Within three days, both parents had died, leaving their children orphans.

Now, in this November morning, the grandfather of sick children 70 years old and blind grandmother say they are taking care of Aravind, 10 and Upender, 13, in the farming village, where men earn an extract of palm collection of life to make alcoholic beverages.

None of the families of children can help full-time, says her grandmother 60 years of age, Saiamma, breaking to mourn.

Hub microcredit in India

Mondrai horrible scene, 80 kilometers (50 miles) from the city of Warangal, has played in dozens of ways in Andhra Pradesh, the fifth largest state in India by area and site of about one third of the country $ 5.3 billion in microfinance loans as of September 30.

More than 70 people committed suicide in the state on March 1 to November 19 to escape or terminate payments to the agony he had shot his debt, according to the Society for Elimination of Rural Poverty, a government agency collected data on microfinance related deaths of police reports and the press.

Andhra Pradesh, where three-quarters of the 76 million people live in rural areas, suffered a total of 14,364 cases of suicide in the first nine months of 2010, according to state police.

A growing number of deaths related to microfinance, spurred the state to curb the practices of collection in mid-October, says Ramos Subrahmanyam, principal secretary for rural development.

"Every life is important," he says.

Turn evil

On November 8, police arrested two leaders of the lender Share Microfin Ltd. allegations of complicity in another suicide, this time from a mother of 22 years of age. Share Microfin not respond to requests for comments on this story.

In India strives to provide a decent education, healthcare and employment to millions of people remain trapped in poverty, microcredit - lending small amounts to the most needy of the world to help them make a living - has taken a perverse twist.

Microcredit has become "Walmartized" by the unrestricted sale of cheap goods to the poor, says Malcolm Harper, president of the company's ratings Micro-Credit Ratings International Ltd. in Gurgaon, India.

"The sale of debt and the sale of drugs," says Harper, 75, has authored over 20 books on microfinance and other issues. "The sale of debt for illiterate women in Andhra Pradesh, one has to be more responsible."

Effect against

K. Venkat Narayana, professor of economics at Warangal Kakatiya University, has studied how microfinance lenders convinced of women's groups to borrow.

"Microfinance is supposed to empower women," she says. "Microfinance boys spent the social and economic progress, and these women ended up becoming slaves."

boom in microcredit industry in India is part of a worldwide phenomenon that began as a charitable movement, but now attracts private capital seeking high growth and profitability.

Banco Compartamos, SA, a former nonprofit that is now the largest lender to Mexico's working poor, raised about $ 467 million in 2007 its initial public offering. IPO August SKS Microfinance Ltd., the largest microfinance institution in India, drew further attention to the industry.

SKS started operations in 1998 as a nongovernmental organization run by Vikram Akula, 42, an Indian-American with a doctorate in political science from the University of Chicago.

The company raised 16.3 billion rupees from the sale of 16,800,000 shares at 985 rupees each. SKS stock peaked at Rs 1404.85 on 15 September. As of December 28, which had fallen to 652.85 rupees.

Andhra Pradesh crisis

On 15 October, the Andhra Pradesh government imposes restrictions that bar microlenders' collection agents visiting borrowers and businesses must obtain local authority approval of new loans. The rules have stopped lending and repayments. levels of recovery of loans in the state have been reduced to less than 20 percent from 98 percent previously, according to an industry group.

The agitation in Andhra Pradesh is a long way from the vision of Muhammad Yunus.

The former economics professor won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for his pioneering work in Bangladesh to provide small amounts of money to entrepreneurs too poor to get bank loans.

Yunus, 70, discovered more than three decades ago when money is lent to women in poverty can begin to make a living, and most of them pay for it.

Yunus started the Grameen Bank project in 1976 to extend banking services to the poor. Since then it has provided $ 9870000000 and recovered 8.76 billion U.S. dollars, 97 percent of the 8,330,000 borrowers are women.

'Wrong direction'

Yunus says he is not against making a profit. But companies seeking to claim windfall and pervert the original intent of microfinance help the poor.

The golden rule for a loan should be the cost of funds, more than 10 percent, he says.

"Marketing is the wrong direction," said Yunus, speaking in a telephone interview from the capital of Bangladesh, Dhaka. "An IPO is the trigger point for a lot of money personally and for the company and shareholders."

David Gibbons, president of CASHPOR micro credit, micro-credit institution without profit to poor women in India in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, says public for nonprofit lenders face a conflict.

"They have to decide between the interests of their clients and the interests of their investors," he says.

"You can not do"

Gibbons, 70, says he learned that lesson when he tried to raise 4 million pounds ($ 6.2 million) from two wealthy London-based non-resident Indian investors in November 2006.

The talks collapsed due to differences on expectations of return on capital and other terms of the contract, he says.

"That's what made me think of this simply can not do," he says.

Indian microlenders Grameen Bank Yunus differ in fundamental ways. To protect the depositors' money after bankruptcies among non-bank financial companies in the decade of 1990, the Reserve Bank of India in 1997 made it more difficult for them to meet the requirements to receive deposits from the public. Only 36 microfinance institutions are registered as non-banking financial companies, according to information supplied by the Reserve Bank.

"I feel so sad"

Indian microlenders same bank loans by 13 percent or more on average and extend credit to the poor. They charge interest rates that may rise to 36 percent, says Alok Prasad, executive director of the Microfinance Institutions Network, representing 44 microfinance institutions. He said that 44 companies are registered with the Reserve Bank.

SKS Microfinance gets funds to about 12 percent interest and paid to the 24.52 percent in Andhra Pradesh, a spokesman Atul Takle said.

In Bangladesh, the Grameen Bank has a banking license in 1983, enabling it to take deposits. Which charges 5 percent for education loans and 8 percent for home loans. Beggars can borrow for free, and the main loan interest is capped at 20 percent, says Yunus.

"Microfinance has been abused and distorted," he says. "I feel very sad because this is not microcredit I created."

Microfinance India has its roots in the financing of the community's decades-old informal.

The NGOs pioneered cooperative loans, now known as SHGs, with initial capital of National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development. Encouraged by these projects, the state bank worked to link groups backed loans to local bank branches in 1992.

For profit companies

nonprofit organizations, subsequently became involved as intermediaries between banks and borrowers. For 2005, non-profit such as SKS and Share Microfin had become lucrative businesses.

Akula SKS attracted investors such as Khosla Ventures, the company Sun Microsystems Inc. co-founder Vinod Khosla, venture capital.

Capital flowed into the new industry of commercial banks, joint ventures and private equity.

Sequoia Capital in Menlo Park, California, and Bangalore-based Infosys Technologies Ltd. Chairman NR Narayana Murthy were among the sponsors. George Soros's Quantum Fund has a 0.37 percent stake in SKS.

private equity investors has only 515 million U.S. dollars in India microfinance firms since 2006, the Risk Research Service Intelligence, said.

"The explosive growth"

More than half of the 66 microfinance India followed by Micro-Credit Ratings are for-profit companies. Some 260 had 26.7 million microfinance borrowers and 183.44 billion rupees of loans outstanding as of March, according to the State of India's Microfinance Sector Report 2010.

"In the last two years we have been seeing explosive growth," says N. Srinivasan, who wrote the report. "Microfinance institutions found it easy to make money. Not that making money is bad, but when you go overboard and say he needs money for growth, you get in trouble."

Polelpaka Pula, mother of two, says she saw her running microlenders Pegadapalli people to compete for business - with tragic results.

Her husband, Prakash, a painter who made 250 rupees a day, first borrowed from a group of villagers to build a house. Each participant called chit fund contributed 1,000 rupees a month and took a turn collecting the full fee.

microfinance staff from L & T Finance Ltd., Financial Ltd. Sphoorty Spandana, SKS Microfin Share and began offering loans in the village since 2004, she says.

The couple, as they contribute to the bottom of the village, had five loans totaling more than 64,000 rupees. It charged them with payments of 7,300 rupees a month, over 5,000 maximum monthly income Prakash rupee.

Usurer

When Prakash ran out of microcredit loans, went to a village moneylender, who charged 100 percent interest.

End and the debt of the globe several lenders, Prakash was hanged in November 2009, his wife said.

The small house he had dreamed of was never completed. Only the foundation is located next to the house of his parents, a small structure with a roof of palm leaves.

Spandana said that none of the names of the couple is in their database. The company says the media mistakenly attributed the harassment to microfinance, especially when Spandana is mentioned.

"Triggers of suicide are multiple, such as stress at home," the company said in an email response to questions about death.

"Subprime" in parallel

SKS Takle spokesman said that his staff has been practicing responsible lending over the past 12 years. Your employees are not paid according to the size of the loan or the reimbursement rate.

"This ensures against giving loans larger than a borrower can pay," says Takle. A spokesman for L & T Finance declined comment.

Overlending in Andhra Pradesh suggests the U.S. subprime crisis, says Lakshmi Shyam-Sunder, director of corporate risk IFC in Washington, which invests in microfinance institutions.

"These loans were originally seen as the expansion of home ownership to poor people, doing good," says Shyam Sunder.

As the industry expanded, so it became a major benefit for some borrowers, she said. "The tension arises when working in activities with social objectives and commercial interests," she says, adding that it is important to find the right balance.

The companies pursue profits in the midst of poor corporate governance are undermining the intent of microfinance, says Gibbons CASHPOR.

"Loans Gone Wild"

During the past five years, the number of microcredit in India has increased an average of 88 percent annually and accounts of borrowers have risen 62 percent a year, making India the world's largest microfinance industry add Micro-credit, he says.

"It is rampant consumer loans Gone Wild" says Gibbons. "There is more poverty reduction."

Sumir Chadha, managing director of Sequoia Capital Advisors SA in India., Says nonprofit that is difficult to find someone to lend to the poor.

"Capitalism is not necessarily a bad thing," says Chadha, whose company has a 14 percent stake in SKS. "If they can not benefit the poor, which means that no company will serve the poor -. And then it will be worse than before"

Chand Bee's Tale

To Chand Bee, 50 years old, who led three groups of borrowers in Andhra Pradesh, too many loans almost became his undoing.

She says she left home after collectors started harassing her. He took out several loans from 2005, and the names of Spandana as one of the lenders.

Some of the money paid for the funeral of his eldest son. When he was behind on payments, loan officers said threatened to humiliate me in front of the neighbors and took to sell their young grandchildren in prostitution.

She left her neighborhood in Warangal, where she lived with her deaf husband, some of his eight children and more than a dozen grandchildren.

After living as a beggar for a year, the bee Chand returned home in early November when family members told him that the State Ordinance which came into force on October 15 it had suspended some collections. Spandana A spokeswoman said that none of the four customers of the company in the district with the name of Chand Bee has had trouble paying.

Almost every household in the neighborhood of 250 people - where children play barefoot in the lanes between the rows of huts in ruins - has taken several loans. So many microfinance ply their trade as residents refer to them for the days listed: business Mondays, Tuesdays and business, etc.

Debt Free

Rabbani, a widow with four children, is one of the few women who are debt free. She put a spice shop with two loans, which returned with its small profit. After seeing the pain of her neighbors, she vowed never to seek another microcredit.

SKS said that 17 of his clients have committed suicide, because none of the loans are delinquent or harassment.

"Suicide is a complex issue," Akula said.

Sitting in the conference room on the second floor of the seven-story headquarters SKS in Hyderabad, where posters of smiling women running crafts and tailoring decorate the doors of the elevators, Akula says there is nothing wrong with the pursuit of profit.

"So what if a poor woman the amount of an investor?" Says Akula, dressed in his trademark kurta shirt Fabindia knee, ethnic clothing salesman by rural artisans. "What matters to her is to get a loan on time at a reasonable price that allows you to earn more income."

Commercial risk

SKS become a trading company allowed the company to take advantage of an unlimited source of funds from private investors. That, in turn, that company grow and reduce the incidence, Akula said.

"Interest rates have declined over time," he says. "Because the works, which return year after year," he says of his clients.

His autobiography, "A Fistful of Rice" (Harvard Business Review Press, 2010), gives an idea of the expansion unit.

Akula, a former consultant at McKinsey & Co., studied McDonald's Corp. and Burger King Holdings Inc. in 2005 to learn about the rapid formation of the unskilled. He devised a two-month course to train about 1,000 new loan officers per month.

"We had a goal for SKS, grow, grow, grow as fast as we could," he writes. "We could practice of microfinance in a way that serve the poorest people than anyone had ever thought possible."

Akula said that the commercial model of microfinance is not the only way.

Returning to 'Roots'

"It is an important complement to other forms of financing," he says. The new microfinance firms do not take time to build trust, Akula said. "As an industry, we must return to our roots," he says.

The Reserve Bank is expected to report on the industry in January. The Ministry of Finance is planning new rules.

Sequoia Capital Chadha says she is concerned about "regulatory uncertainty" created by the ordinance of the state and federal regulations preferred. national standards would prevent individual states the credit discipline of resignation damage loans, Prasad Microfinance Institutions "he says.

"It's no different to the need for good regulation for investment shares or start a manufacturing plant," SKS investor Khosla says.

"People not profit"

From the perspective of Yunus, it is essential that the industry is moving away to seek the maximum benefit and to refocus on the poor.

"If not, are helping the lives of the poor," he says. "You're not patient. You are not restricted. You do not have empathy for people. You just use them to make money. That's what the blinds when you're in for-profit world. We must see people, not profit. "

Any change would be too late to Atthili Padma and Shivalingam, a young couple in the village of cotton farming Chennampalli Andhra Pradesh.

Padma, a mother of 22 years of age, in two, left his home on 7 October with her 18 month old daughter and 4 year olds, according to Maruthi Prasad, a superintendent of station Shankarampet police.

Padma's death

Instead of heading to the home of his parents, as he often did, walked 2 miles in the opposite direction. Came to an ancient Hindu temple where the villagers worship the Lord Shiva, the god of destruction. Padma continued until he stood before a pit once used to irrigate crops, his father-in-law, Pochaiah he says. There is no one to dissuade her, she jumped into the well with their children.

The day before he died, Padma had visited his parents after arguing with her husband more loans they could not afford, according to Mangamma, neighbor of the couple.

Her marriage five years ago was arranged by her parents and the couple had become close and had not fought before that day, Mangamma says. The loans amounted to 20,000 rupees, Pochaiah says.

Padma's death is recorded as a suicide related to microfinance in the list by the Society for Elimination of Rural Poverty.

Sad day for Microfinance "

Police arrested the husband of Padma, Shivalingam, October 13 for alleged complicity in the suicide of Padma. It also claimed that he had harassed, provide money to marry him, which is illegal in India, according to Narayana, a police officer at the station Shankarampet.

The police made two further arrests on November 8: Share Microfin managers Raghavender Sriram, Kumaraswami Polapalli 27, 22, also for alleged complicity in suicide, according to the superintendent Prasad. Both managers and Shivalingam have been released on bail and are awaiting a court hearing, Prasad said.

Proponents and Khosla say investors and microfinance - when it works properly - is the best way of giving the rural poor a chance at a better life.

The tragedy in India has the worst possible outcome, says Gibbons CASHPOR, whose speech opened November 15 session the morning of the annual summit of Microfinance India in New Delhi.

"This is a sad day for microfinance," said Gibbons, who has promoted the movement of the last two decades.

"People often ask me, 'What are you doing here?" He told the audience. "I was always proud to say:" I'm doing microfinance. "Now when people ask, I feel ashamed. I feel like hiding somewhere."

Julian Assange pushes limits In his work life and his sex life



For better or for worse, Julian Assange push the limits. In his professional life and your sex life, which is situated on the border that divides the legal conduct of the crime, although it is not clear which side of that border it occupies.

U.S. officials are looking for a way to prosecute him for publishing secrets while women in Sweden say they crossed the line between horseplay consensus and rape.

Incorporate the release of the journalists say Assange of thousands of classified documents is not real journalism. And yet, they realize their situation is linked to yours. Some have urged the Justice Department not to judge knowing reporter essential task of discovering the truth could suffer if it did.

For all lines we would like to point out, the law makes no distinction between civil publishers of classified documents, and shall be loosed in raw form or verified WikiLeaks developed with interviews, analysis and wrapped in the form of articles in the New York Times.

As the value of the documents, some little more than gossip content, while others showed very newsworthy. Last week, for example, we learn that the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration is doing more than its name implies.

It has become "a global intelligence organization" with "so vast spying operation that has to fend off foreign politicians who want to use against their political enemies," the New York Times, citing diplomatic cables obtained WikiLeaks.

Israel is about to admit and apologize for using forged documents to get UK within the range of killing a Hamas leader in Dubai. The admission will come as WikiLeaks was about to release documents showing the role of Israel.

Wikileaks on Russia

In Russia, the independent weekly Novaya Gazeta newspaper, said that soon Wikileaks published documents that reveal corruption in the Kremlin. What can not be that good?

Without doubt, carelessness with documents tightened Assange diplomatic communications. Whether it also has killed as some predicted, do not know.

But unless the publication created a "clear and present danger" to national security, such as Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. put it in a case of 1919, the Constitution prohibits the prosecution of U.S. for freedom of expression for most of us.

As recently as 2001, the Supreme Court said that "absent a need to first order", a radio commentator could not be sued for broadcasting a tape that someone else had arrived illegal spying by telephone. In that tape, an official of the labor force had been talking about a teachers' strike.

Private Manning

Yes, the government can prohibit their employees to escape, so the U.S. Army arresting individuals suspected of leaking to Assange, Bradley Manning, who faces a court martial. It is also why researchers are looking for evidence that the leak Assange encouraged or helped to present the material.

Loading Assange of conspiring with the leaker could put it in the Espionage Act of 1917. But even if he did conspire, how Assange be different from a reporter from the Washington Post that leads to a government source in the disclosure of secret information that the public really should know?

Assange prosecution would be "a dangerous precedent for journalists in any publication or medium term, which could chill investigative journalism," wrote the 20 professors of journalism at Columbia University to the Attorney General Eric Holder and President Barack Obama this month .

History shows that "the government's overreaction to the publication of material leaked to the press has always been more damaging to American democracy than their own losses," the teachers wrote.

Nixon's response

Congress and presidents have periodically attempted to punish perfectly constitutional discourse, dating back to the Alien and Sedition Acts of 1787 and again during the Civil War, the First World War and the Cold War, as the University of Chicago professor right Geoffrey Stone told Congress this month.

The baby boomers may be recalled that 1969 news reports revealed the secret bombing of Cambodia led the United States to a kind of backlash by President Richard Nixon. He ordered wiretapping officials and journalists to locate leaks.

Two years later, Nixon was so outraged by Daniel Ellsberg of Pentagon Papers fall to the New York Times that he ordered a group of attendees to find and plug leaks.

These "plumbers" as it was released, stolen office of Ellsberg's psychiatrist in search of dirt, and broke into the Watergate headquarters of the Democratic National Committee in 1972.

End of the war

The idea of a president leading a criminal enterprise to suppress the truth and punish those who reveal it's not exactly what one expects of the leader of a democratic society.

Despite the backlash against the run, which gave Americans a history of the unwinnable war in Vietnam. The study revealed that they had been deceived by the president after president. The publication helped hasten the end of U.S. involvement.

What he did not harm national security is, as the Nixon administration had claimed when he went to court to stop publication by the New York Times.

Assange do not think is a real journalist, either, and there is much about the way it works I find deplorable. But history gives us many reasons to doubt the official proclamations that has damaged national security.

You should also warn us against government overreaction. If the Obama criticizes Assange on charges, journalists from around the world could be more difficult to discover what is really happening and risk prosecution if they do.

Plosser and Fisher may dissent from Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s plan to purchase $600 billion in Treasuries



Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Charles Plosser, president and chairman of the Dallas Fed Richard Fisher, the dissent can plan s Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, for purchase of $ 600 billion in Treasury bills, former Fed governor Lyle Gramley said.

"I think Philadelphia's Charles Plosser and Richard Fisher of Dallas are likely to dissent from time to time," Gramley said today in an interview, "Fast Forward" with Peter Cook. "You probably will not affect the outcome of monetary policy decisions. Ben Bernanke, is still in control of the commission."

Plosser said in an interview last week was a "close call" on whether to have dissented from the Fed's December 14, reaffirming plans to buy $ 600 billion in Treasuries in June, expanding to record stimulus try to reduce the 9.8 percent unemployment and keep inflation from falling. Fisher said in November that the measure may be "the wrong medicine" for the U.S. economy.

As part of an annual rotation in the vote on the policy of the Fed, Plosser Fisher, and the bankers of Chicago and Minneapolis Fed votes cast in 2011. The leader of the New York Fed has a permanent voting.

"This is a year that the Fed probably will not have to do anything, just sit still, let the economy take care of itself," said Gramley, senior adviser Potomac Research Group in Washington. "We're looking at an economy that is improving, so the Fed is not going to have to add more stimulation."

This month, the president of the Kansas City Fed, Thomas Hoenig, the senior political leaders, voted against the policy of the Fed for the eighth straight time and reiterated its view that "continued high level of monetary accommodation "may" destabilize the economy. " Record tied former Governor Henry Wallich in 1980 for most in a year dissents.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

The dollar weakened against their counterparts from Australia



The dollar weakened against their counterparts from Australia, New Zealand and Canada, as rising commodity prices boosted demand for currencies linked to commodity exports.

The U.S. currency fell to half of its 16 most actively traded peers as U.S. reports indicate a weaker economic growth than expected, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's plan to keep U.S. interest rates low. The Canadian dollar reached parity with the greenback for the first time since Nov. 11. The Swiss franc strengthened to a record low against the dollar as investors demand an alternative to the euro amid the crisis in the region of sovereign debt.

"The Australian continues to shine and with it the New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar," said Omer Eisner, chief market analyst in Washington at the Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc., a forex brokerage firm. "That is a function of dollar weakness in general, but also the strength of commodities in general."

The dollar fell 0.6 percent to $ 1.0109 per Australian dollar at 1:04 pm in New York from $ 1.0046 yesterday. Declined 0.7 percent to 75.53 cents per New Zealand dollar weakened 0.7 percent to 99.93 Canadian cents. The Canadian dollar touched 99.76 Canadian cents, the strongest since April 26.

Euro, Yen

The dollar gained 0.5 percent to $ 1.3105 per euro after touching $ 1.3275, its lowest level since 17 December. The U.S. currency fell 1.2 percent to 81.82 yen, the lowest level since 12 November.

The Reuters / Jefferies CRB Index of commodities rose by 0.7 percent. Gold futures for February delivery gained 21.40 dollars, or 1.6 percent, to $ 1,404.30 in the Comex in New York.

The euro erased gains against the dollar after European Central Bank said it could not completely neutralize the extra liquidity created by its purchases of bonds for the second time since the program began in May.

The ECB, based in Frankfurt, said that drains € 61780000000 (U.S. $ 81 billion) in money markets through deposit within seven days, almost 13 billion euros less than the € 73,500,000,000 its intention absorb.

ECB Sterilization

"If you are not completely sterilized, it is true quantitative easing, which is bad news for the euro," said Richard Franulovich, currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York.

The S & P / Case-Shiller index of property values fell 0.8 percent from October 2009, the largest drop year after year, since December 2009, the group said today in New York. The decline surpassed the 0.2 percent decline.Consumer confidence fell in December to 52.5.

Although the figures show U.S. property values fell, reports over the next three days will show an improvement in employment.
30 December figures show initial jobless claims declined and pending home sales advanced forecasting survey.

"The fundamental economic history in the U.S. is positive and moving in a positive direction," said Mark McCormick, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York.

Tax Plan

Barack Obama President on December 17 signed into law a bill 858 billion U.S. dollars of tax cuts.

The Fed this month reiterated its commitment to keep borrowing costs low for an extended period will, keeping the target rate for overnight bank loans a day zero to 0.25 percent, where it has been since December 2008. The Fed said last month it would buy 600 billion U.S. dollars of treasury bonds in June to boost the economy, a policy that has been called the Queen Elizabeth 2 for a second round of quantitative easing.

An increase in the futures traders betting that the Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar shows investors are worried that Europe's crisis may deepen debt, according to UBS AG.

The Swiss franc appreciated as much as 1.8 percent against the dollar to a record 94.35 cents. It strengthened 1.4 percent to 1.2468 against the euro, almost record high of 1.2439.

Franco Register

The franc hit a record high against the euro last week as investors sought the safety of Europe's crisis of sovereign debt. The Swiss National Bank President Philipp Hildebrand, who completed 15 months of intervention in currency markets this year may be unable to stop the currency to extend a record rally he calls a "burden."

"The Swiss franc continues to progress and the Japanese yen is also stronger," said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. "We're seeing some of the safe-haven currencies click OK and the euro value of losing."

The euro has fallen 10.9 percent so far this year, the biggest loss among the 10 developed nations is measured in foreign exchange rates. The dollar has lost 1.6 percent and the yen has added 12.9 percent.

The euro has added 0.9 percent against the dollar this month and the yen has risen 1.8 percent.

South African rand was the second artist ever against the dollar most traded currency in increasing precious metals prices attracted investors.

The rand rose 1.1 percent to 6.6637 per dollar and touched 6.6443, the highest since December 2007. Gold, which together with platinum accounts for about a fifth of South Africa's exports, rose for a third day, adding 1.6 percent.

Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda told a news conference today in Tokyo to take bold action if necessary in the currency market, calling the yen's recent movements on one side. Noda also said it will continue to monitor markets closely.

China stocks will bounce back next quarter of the biggest annual fall in the Shanghai Index



China stocks will bounce back next quarter of the biggest annual fall in the Shanghai Composite Index since 2008, slowing inflation reduces the need for further increases in interest rates and faster economic growth, according to the joint venture of Morgan Stanley in country.

The central bank's two rate increases since October will "achieve the full realization" in moderating consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in 28 months in November, said Zhao Lisong, chief strategist at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund Management Co., which oversees about $ 1,900,000,000. Developers, materials producers and automobile manufacturers will benefit as the government slows down the pace of policy tightening and accelerating growth, he said.

"China's economic growth will support a slight upward trend in 2011," Zhao said in a telephone interview yesterday from Shenzhen, declining to give a forecast for the Shanghai Composite index. "As inflation given after the Chinese New Year, the government can reduce the frequency of adjustment measures." The Chinese lunar new year ends in mid-February.

The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.7 percent to 2,732.99 today, extending the measure in question is longest losing streak since July, after the People's Bank of China raised key one-year lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point, on Christmas Day. The measure in question has fallen 17 percent this year, making it the worst performer among the 14 largest stock markets in the world.

government of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has ordered banks to set aside more reserves for six times this year and raised rates to control inflation and curb asset bubbles after record high prices of loans and property. China reported inflation of 5.1 percent in November, surpassing the previous month by 4.4 percent as food costs rose.

"Comparatively strong '

populations in the nation fell yesterday as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley predicts further increases in interest rates in the first half of 2011. China may raise rates three times in the first six months, according to Morgan Stanley, while JPMorgan forecasts two increases during that period.

China, the inflation rate may be in a "relatively high" in the first half, "said Liu Jianwei, a fund manager Boser Asset Management Co., which manages about 19 billion yuan in Shenzhen.

Is in favor of gold producers and airlines as a hedge against inflation and the government allows a faster appreciation of yuan, the reduction of U.S. carriers the cost of dollar debt. Liu also likes companies that benefit from the government side of the five-year economic plan, which focuses on boosting domestic consumption and increasing energy efficiency.

China's economy will grow at a rate of 10 percent next year and inflation averaged 3.3 percent, the China Academy of Social Sciences said in its Blue Book of Economics in 2011 published December 7. The target for 2010 GDP growth is 8 percent, according to Wen's annual report for work on 5 March.

Earnings Growth

The expansion of the economy, which is set to overtake Japan as second largest in the world this year, will support the growth of earnings up by 22 percent next year, according to Morgan Stanley Huaxin Zhao.

China profits from industrial enterprises rose 49.4 percent in the 11 months to November last year, a report showed yesterday. The increase compared with a gain of 7.8 percent over the same period in 2009.

China increased the interest rate will be good for bank profits, and that will boost net interest margins without increasing the rate of demand deposit, according to a report of UOB Kay Hian yesterday.

The benchmark interest rate rose to 5.81 percent and the rate of one-year deposits rose to 2.75 percent. The interest rate rise to 6.56 percent by the end of next year.
"The shortage of liquidity could provide in the first quarter," said Zhao, the predicted increase its lending banks after the government sets an annual quota again. "Economic growth will also increase liquidity."

Bernanke may be about to get help in an attempt to boost the economy

Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, may be about to get help in an attempt to boost the economy, an industry bedrock: housing.

Employment growth, even with unemployment at 9.4 percent or higher since May 2009 and an increase in U.S. population housing means likely to improve in 2011 from its record low, said Charles Lieberman, chief investment officer of Advisors Capital Management LLC in Hasbrouck Heights, New Jersey. Mortgage rates are less than 5 percent, further supporting affordability.

An increase in housing construction would increase employment for construction workers and also for people in the supply industries stoves and sinks that go to new homes. In the house was reduced to less participation in the economy in history, 2.23 percent, employment growth slowed. The economy created 39,000 jobs in November, 5,000 construction jobs were lost.

"The housing market is going to shock people," said Lieberman, former head of monetary analysis in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. "Once we got the ball rolling, it becomes easy to roll. The most important thing the Fed can do, it is not easy, is to promote job growth. If we see employment growth that is going to market very strong property. "

Employment increased by an average of 200,000 per month next year, bringing the unemployment rate, 9.8 percent in November, almost one percentage point, he said.

Interest Rates

At the Fed meeting to discuss monetary policy on December 14, Bernanke and other members of the Open Market Committee revised its 600 billion U.S. dollars of the bond program with purchase option. One hope is that by 2011 nearly zero Fed interest rates will finally be able to begin to reverse a half-decade decline in the housing.

residential investment share of the economy fell to 2.23 percent in the third quarter of 2010, the lowest since records began in 1946, up from 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005, the highest in 55 years. That decline has led to the loss of jobs in the construction industry: He fell to 5.6 million this year from 7.7 million in 2006.

Housing starts probably will reach a maximum of three years from 739,000 in 2011, creating enough jobs to shave half a percentage point the unemployment rate, said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders in Washington.

Ugly Cycle

"This is an ugly business cycle," he said in a telephone interview. "We need job creation to people comfortable with buying a home. If they do, we will create jobs that will enhance the home buying and employment growth of extra fuel." Building more in 2011 add about 500,000 jobs, he said. The association of home builders' expected an unemployment rate of 9.1 percent in late 2011.

A background in the housing market could improve the prospects of companies in Midcap Index Standard & Poor's Homebuilding, which has fallen 68 percent since its peak in July 2005. Douglas Yearley, the head of the index members of Toll Brothers Inc., said in an interview.
"The recovery is here to stay," said Yearley, whose company, based in Horsham, Pennsylvania, is the largest U.S. builder luxury home. "I think that 2011 will be a year better, but I think 2012 will be a great year for us."

The number of contracts signed for the purchase of Toll Brothers homes rose 6.3 percent in the 12 months ended in October, compared with the previous year, the first increase since 2005, the company said in a report by December 2 .

Homebuilders ETF

The average price increased 6.1 percent to $ 565,079, the first increase since 2006. Shares of construction are 8 percent this month compared with a gain of 6.5 percent for the 500 Standard & Poor's.

The S & P Builders Exchange Traded Fund, which includes Los Angeles, KB Home, Fort Worth, based in the Dominican Republic Horton Inc., has risen 13.3 percent since Nov. 18, vs. 4.8 percent for the S & P 500 ETF.

Builders in the U.S. began work on 555,000 housing units in November to an annual rate, compared with 477,000 units in April 2009, which was the lowest in the census records dating from 1959.

Meanwhile, the U.S. population has continued to grow. The 2010 census data, published last week in Washington, show that the population amounted to 308.7 million 281.4 million in 2000, an average increase of $ 2.7 million a year.

More Homes

The number of U.S. households, an indicator of demand for real estate, is likely to increase by 0.7 percent to 118.7 million in 2011, the largest annual increase since the beginning of the crisis mortgages in 2007, according to Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.

The lack of new housing construction has been "to recovery, but you could say that drag is fading now that the financial system is recovering," said James O'Sullivan, chief economist of MF Global Ltd. in New York. It is expected an increase of 12 percent of residential investment in 2011, with job growth of 200,000 in June, as much as 225,000 a month in the second half and an unemployment rate of 8.8 percent the fourth quarter.

Housing construction is likely to improve from the current minimum and still be well below its long-term trend, he said. A key to this forecast is supported by low interest rates, which enhanced the capacity of home ownership to record levels in October.

To provide housing

Housing affordability, measured by the ease with which a middle-income family can afford a median-priced house, hit a record high of 184.2 in October, the highest index reading in more than two decades of data, according to the National Association of Realtors in Washington.

Home prices continued to decline. The S & P / Case-Shiller index of property values fell 0.8 percent from October 2009, the largest drop year after year, since December 2009, the group said today in New York. Eighteen of the 20 cities showed price declines in October, led by a fall of 2.1 percent in Atlanta, and the decline of 1.8 percent in Chicago and Minneapolis.

However, mortgage rates have shaken the damping effect of the program's initial purchase of the Fed, known as the Queen Elizabeth 2 for the second round of quantitative easing. The U.S. average for a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 4.81 percent during the week ended Dec. 23 from a low of 4.17 percent in mid-November, according to Freddie Mac, the mortgage buyer McLean, Virginia.

Pending sales of existing U.S. homes unexpectedly rose by a record 10 percent in October, the real estate group, said earlier this month, indicating the industry could be stabilizing. transactions in November rose 5.6 percent to 4.68 million at an annual rate, NAR said last week. Purchases of new homes rose 5.5 percent to an annual rate of 290,000 in November, the Commerce Department said on December 23.
"Gradual improvement '

Robert Niblock, chairman and CEO of Lowe's Cos., the second largest U.S. retailer home improvement, and Ian McCarthy, CEO of Beazer Homes USA Inc., expressed optimism qualified for the housing outlook. Niblock said in a teleconference on November 15 income "even in a difficult environment, we are seeing a gradual improvement in the fundamentals of the housing market."

Atlanta-based Beazer, a builder of entry, the national waiting-family housing starts to increase in 2011, "probably in the low double-digit percentage," McCarthy said in a November 5th earnings call.

Decreasing share of the economy for the construction of new houses, improving record lows not promote growth as well as in the past, said Paul Dales, economist at U.S. for Capital Economics Ltd. in Toronto. He agreed that residential investment is about to be a modest boost to gross domestic product.

No Drag

"Before if there was an increase of 10 percent GDP increased by 0.6 percentage points," said Valles. "Now, if it rises by 10 percent is an increase of 0.2 percent. The construction of homes are actually on the floor. There will be a drag on growth."

In October, 1.4 million construction workers were unemployed with only 46,000 jobs, a ratio of 31 workers for every job available, according to Labor Department data.

The Fed has completed 155.7 billion U.S. dollars of the allocated $ 600 billion in purchases. The central bank is also reinvesting profits from its holdings of maturing debt of the home.

His decision to start a second round of asset purchases sparked a political backlash in Washington, with Republican lawmakers criticized the measure as likely to be inflationary. Indiana Rep. Mike Pence and Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee have proposed eliminating the Fed's dual mandate for full employment and price stability, and have the central bank's focus only on price stability.

Unable to get weaker

Bernanke, appeared on the CBS Television's "60 Minutes" on Dec. 5 to face the criticism, saying he was "one hundred percent" sure that the central bank could control inflation.

Asked about his outlook for the economy, Bernanke said that a return to recession was unlikely, adding that "it is because, among other things, some of the more cyclical parts of the economy such as housing, for example, are very weak. And you can not get much weaker. "

Fed officials are not optimistic about the housing outlook at its meeting on November 2-3, citing the source of elevated due to foreclosures. Some "saw the disputes over the documents of the mortgage and foreclosure likely to delay any recovery in housing markets," according to minutes of that meeting.

"Residential investment has failed to make a positive contribution to growth in this recovery," said the president of the Richmond Fed, Jeffrey Lacker said in a speech on Dec. 6 in Charlotte, North Carolina.

"Legacy of overbuilding"

"This contrasts with the two worst recessions of the past 60 years, in which housing investment increased an average of 40 percent in the first year of recovery," he said. "Given the important legacy of overbuilding, unique to this recession, I do not think that housing to contribute significantly to growth in the next two years."

A high foreclosure rate can not derail a housing recovery, said Lieberman of Advisors Capital. The company realized 55.7 million U.S. dollars of U.S. stocks 30 September, including real estate investment trust Sun Communities Inc. and Colonial Properties Trust, according to Securities and Exchange Commission.

Foreclosures are "half the story," Lieberman said, because people who lose their homes must find homes elsewhere. "They do not disappear or move to Mars. They take another holiday away from the market."

Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in December

Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in December, restrained by community work will remain limited in 2011.

The confidence index fell to 52.5 Conference Board less than the most pessimistic forecasts and down from a revised 54.3 in November, the figures of the research group in New York, showed today day. The share of Americans saying jobs were hard to get rose to a maximum of 10 months.

The loss of confidence is at odds with a report from the University of Michigan showed that confidence improved to a maximum of six months in December, and the data showing the greatest increase in rental expense over five years. Federal Reserve policy makers have reiterated they will continue to inject money into financial markets in an attempt to maintain low interest rates, boosting growth and reducing unemployment.

"You're still seeing the labor market is the main concern for consumers," said David Semmens, a U.S. economist Standard Chartered Bank in New York. "It is a major concern for consumer spending."

The shares erased earlier gains after the report. 500 of Standard & Poor's fell 0.1 percent to 1,256.71 at 10:34 am in New York as the drop in confidence offset optimism about earnings of holiday spending. Treasuries fell, bringing the yield on the benchmark note 10 years to 3.38 percent from 3.33 percent yesterday afternoon.

Sales Rise

Retailers for 2010 holiday sales rose 5.5 percent for the best performance in five years, said SpendingPulse MasterCard Advisors, which measures retail sales in all forms of payment. That compares with a gain of 4.1 percent a year earlier. The figures include online sales and exclude purchases of automobiles.

The median forecast of confidence, based on a survey of 61 economists projected confidence increased to 56.3. The Conference Board revised the November figure to 54.3 from a previous estimate of 54.1. Projections ranged from 53 to 60. The average rate of 96.8 during the last economic expansion ended in December 2007.

The report highlighted today in contrast to preliminary figures from Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan showed confidence rose to a maximum of six months in December.

Fall Values

In a report today showed home prices fell more than expected in October, a sign of the housing will remain a weak link in the recovery accelerates in the new year. The S & P/Case- Shiller index of property values fell 0.8 percent from October 2009, the largest drop year after year, since December 2009. The decline surpassed the 0.2 percent.

The Conference Board's measure of sentiment on current conditions fell to 23.5 in December from 25.4 the previous month. The indicator of expectations for the next six months fell to 71.9 from 73.6 in November.

The percentage of respondents expecting more jobs to become available in the next six months declined to 14.3, lowest since July. The proportion of people who expect their incomes to rise over the next six months fell to 9.9 percent from 11.1 percent.

The proportion of consumers saying jobs are plentiful now fell to 3.9 percent this month, while those who said jobs are hard to get rose to 46.8 percent, the most since February.

Employment Earnings

Employers added 951,000 workers to payrolls in the first 11 months of the year, according to Labor Department figures. December data are due January 7.

The gains have not been large enough to reduce unemployment, which was 9.8 percent last month after the end of 2009 to 10 percent.

Barack Obama President on December 17 signed into law a bill that 858 billion U.S. dollars is spread over two years of the Bush cuts taxes for all income levels, continues to expand unemployment benefits to insurance payroll taxes long-term unemployed 13 months and reduced during 2011.

Some Americans are more willing to make some purchases of high cost. Car sales in November rose to 12.26 million unit pace, the highest since the government cash for clunkers program in August 2009, industry data showed this month. Demand in the past three months is the strongest in two years.

Increased confidence is helping to raise purchases of goods with high price call. Ford Motor Co. said sales of U.S. cars in December are running at a rate of 12 million units per year, and forecast sales could rise to nearly 13 million next year.

"We have a high degree of confidence that 2011 will be a strong sales year," said George Pipas, Ford sales analyst, in a December 20 information to reporters in Dearborn, Michigan, which has its headquarters company. "We are much better than they were a year ago."

Home prices fell more than expected in October

Home prices fell more than expected in October, a sign of the housing will remain a weak link in the U.S. recovery accelerates in the new year.

The S & P / Case-Shiller index of property values fell 0.8 percent from October 2009, the largest drop year after year, since December 2009, the group said today in New York.

A wave of executions in hopes of reaching the market with home prices remain under pressure in 2011, representing a risk to household finances. Responsible for the Federal Reserve this month, said "depressed" housing and high unemployment remained restrictions on consumer spending, reasons reiterated a plan to expand the monetary stimulus registration.

"We will remain in negative territory for several months," said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, who forecast a year-on-year fall of 1.3 percent. "The housing market remains weak and no recent data suggest a substantial rebound."

After retiring briefly, stock index futures remained higher after the report as a jump in holiday sales outlook boosted consumer spending. The contract on the Standard & Poor's 500 due in March rose 0.2 percent to 1255.5 at 9:23 am in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose to 3.36 percent from 3.33 percent yesterday afternoon.

Poll Results

The median forecast is based on projections from 17 economists surveyed. Estimates range from an increase of 1.4 percent to a decline of 1.3 percent. Year after year records began in 2001. Prices rose 0.4 percent in the year ended in September.

The indicator fell by 1 percent in October from the previous month after adjustment for seasonal variations, matching drop in September, which was higher than previously estimated. unadjusted prices fell by 1.3 percent from the previous month.

Eighteen of the 20 cities showed price declines in October, led by a fall of 2.1 percent in Atlanta, and declines of 1.8 percent in Chicago and Minneapolis. Denver and Washington were the only two posted gains.

Six markets, including Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Seattle, Tampa and Portland, Oregon, reached its lowest level in October, as prices began to retreat.

"The double dip is almost here," said David Blitzer, chairman of the index of S & P. Sales are not "give a sense of optimism."

Since 2006

The 20-city index fell by 30 percent in October from its peak in July 2006.

Meter every year gives a better indication of trends in prices, the group has said. The panel includes Karl Case and Robert Shiller, the economist who created the index.

The Case-Shiller index is based on an average of three months, which means that the October data was influenced by operations in September and August.

The fall in prices represents a setback for the house after the values recovered earlier this year, thanks to a $ 8,000 tax credit home buyers' purchases which raised.

Reports earlier this month showed that the housing market is stuck near recession levels even when the overall economy is recovering. building permit in November fell for the third-lowest in history, while the beginnings rose for the first time in three months, the Commerce Department reported on 16 December.

Sales of new and existing homes last month rose less than forecast, reports the Department of Commerce and the National Association of Realtors showed last week.

Price Outlook

Based in Atlanta USA Beazer Homes Inc., which builds and sells single family homes starting in the south of the country, the projects will not increase prices.

"We hope that the sales prices of new homes to be somewhere between flat and 3 percent in 2011," said Beazer CEO Ian McCarthy on a conference call last month. "While it is clear that there are risks of further declines in home prices, we believe that new homes are in good standing with respect to existing homes not crushed."

Today's report may be a reminder of why the Fed officials, who met on December 14 last year, for example, housing is falling, while the economy recovers. They cited the decline in value of housing as one of the restrictions on consumer spending.

"The housing sector remains depressed," the Fed said in a statement after the meeting, which reiterated a plan to expand the monetary stimulus registration and said that economic growth is "insufficient to reduce unemployment."

Still, economists in the last two weeks have raised projections for growth in the fourth quarter, reflecting a rebound in consumer spending and the adoption of a law of 858 billion U.S. dollars to extend all the Bush tax cuts- was for two years. The legislation also continues to extended unemployment insurance benefits until 2011 and cuts in payroll taxes by 2 percentage points next year.

The following table shows the historical price variation
according to the S & P / Case-Shiller index of home prices. Cities are
ranked by the biggest monthly gain using seasonally unadjusted
data.

============================================================
               1-months 3-months  1-year  2-years  3-years
               earlier  earlier  earlier  earlier  earlier
============================================================
US Composite-20  -1.32%   -2.39%   -0.80%   -8.08%  -24.70%
------------------------------------------------------------
Washington DC    -0.20%   -0.28%    3.65%    1.00%  -17.97%
Las Vegas        -0.21%    0.06%   -3.57%  -29.26%  -51.61%
Denver           -0.57%   -1.65%   -1.79%   -1.90%   -6.98%
Los Angeles      -0.75%   -1.26%    3.34%   -3.21%  -30.24%
Tampa            -0.90%   -2.19%   -3.61%  -18.27%  -34.48%
Miami            -1.11%   -2.60%   -3.39%  -16.95%  -41.06%
Phoenix          -1.11%   -3.93%   -4.28%  -21.61%  -47.21%
Dallas           -1.13%   -3.83%   -3.13%   -3.68%   -6.66%
Charlotte        -1.14%   -2.54%   -4.19%  -10.90%  -14.87%
============================================================
               1-months 3-months  1-year  2-years  3-years
               earlier  earlier  earlier  earlier  earlier
============================================================
Boston           -1.23%   -2.82%   -0.23%   -3.03%   -8.85%
Seattle          -1.34%   -2.66%   -4.11%  -16.03%  -24.61%
Portland         -1.48%   -4.16%   -5.15%  -14.59%  -23.20%
San Diego        -1.50%   -3.05%    2.97%    0.55%  -26.28%
Cleveland        -1.52%   -4.76%   -2.64%   -6.03%  -11.83%
New York         -1.61%   -1.99%   -1.67%   -9.58%  -16.56%
San Francisco    -1.91%   -3.07%    2.23%   -0.43%  -31.28%
Minneapolis      -1.91%   -4.35%   -2.80%  -10.79%  -25.18%
Chicago          -1.99%   -3.08%   -6.48%  -15.95%  -25.04%
Detroit          -2.45%   -3.25%   -5.52%  -20.02%  -36.33%
Atlanta          -2.90%   -6.11%   -6.19%  -13.77%  -22.83%
============================================================

here are 10 things that may (or may not) happen in 2011



There is an old joke that economists make predictions only for the kids to have time to laugh at someone. In the same vein, once a year, this column also makes some predictions - but only economists have something to laugh more.

With this caveat in mind, here are 10 things that may (or may not) happen in 2011:

No. 1. Yields rising market. In fact we have been in a bull market more than a year. Just take a look at the numbers. But in the early stages of a cycle of increased capital, no one says it's a bull market. First call it a dead cat bounce. Then they call it a bear market rally. In late 2011, the currency will have fallen. We will be officially in the territory of bulls. At the end of the year, around the world have begun chip back in action again.

No. 2. Accidents alternative investment industry. The primary driver of hedge funds and private equity funds was the search for profitability. With stock markets in the doldrums, interest rates cut to almost nothing, and bond yields at historic lows, investors were desperate for any significant return of their money. They were willing to listen to the managers of hedge funds stain that pledged to make 30 percent a year on the high speed of yak hide arbitration. The next year, rising interest rates, and thus adheres performance and stock returns. Why bother paying a fortune to hedge fund managers and private equity, some of whom keep their promises, when you can get pretty decent returns mainstream investment?

No. 3. Return on risk capital. The launch of the industry received a terrible beating from the collapse of the dot-com. But usually rough, a decade is enough time for financial markets to unwind. There are fantastic opportunities out there. Smartphone applications. Social networks. Alternative energy. Africa. The markets always have room for some optimists blue sky - and 2011 will be the year that venture capitalists fill that space again.

No. 4. France was smoked in the crisis of the euro. Somehow, France has managed to get grouped together with Germany as one of the strong euro countries. But it has a larger budget deficit than Italy. With chronic unemployment and low growth. Fundamentally, has the highest resistance to reform. The slightest suggestion of extending the working hours, or the retirement age, or the reform of public services, calls mass protests. It can not last. Next year is when it rolls France with Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain.

No. 5. Apple Inc. reaction begins. We used to think that International Business Machines Corp. was a kind of loss. Then it was Microsoft Corp. But the company now has too much power, is run by control freaks, and puts profits before principles? That's right. the third largest company in the world, measured by market value, is about to discover that the line between fresh upstart ugly monopoly is very thin.

No. 6. The German is back in fashion. German words and fashion go together about as well as Greece and solvent. But in a world trying to figure out how to get out of a debt crisis, the Rhineland model of capitalism is soon going to look very attractive. Many mid-sized companies with strong technical expertise, low debt and skilled manpower export of niche products to the world - which sounds like a good formula for success in the 2010 decade. In late 2011, we expect every CEO in the world to start talking seriously about looking for a German management model as your guide.

No. 7. Lloyds Banking Group Plc is broken up. The hasty merger between two major UK banks, Lloyds and HBOS Plc, increasingly looks like one of the most disastrous decisions made during the height of the credit crisis. It is too powerful. This will be the year they were separated.

No. 8. Iceland teaches the world a lesson. Two years ago, all governments of the world, bought the idea that we had to bail out their banks. If collapsed, which would go directly back to the Stone Age. A country challenged the consensus. Iceland can not afford to keep up their banks. What happened? There has been pain, sure, but from next year the economy should grow again, inflation is under control and interest rates are falling. If Iceland keep the recovery, there is only one conclusion: There is no need to bail out the banks, after all.

No. 9. Russia puts the R in BRIC again. We have heard a lot about the growing economic power of Brazil, India and China. Much less is heard about the R in BRIC - - Russia. It tends to be dismissed as a supplier of raw materials an authoritarian government. But trying to recreate in a technological power - look at the plans to create a new Silicon Valley in the suburb of Moscow Skolkovo. Crazy? Remember, this was the first country to put a man into space. Russia has always been scientifically advanced. If you can put your brain and businessmen together, however, could eclipse the B, I and C in the acronym.

No. 10. A backlash against Christmas e-cards. Is it really necessary holiday greetings from a small bank in Latvia that I have never spoken? Does the management consulting company in Austria sincere in wishing me the best for the holiday season? I doubt it. Listen guys. It is not reflective. Is not playing. Is spam. Frankly, I prefer to get another email from that company that supplies Ukraine friendly Viagra without a prescription. At Christmas of 2011, sending e-cards will be socially unacceptable - and none too soon.

Thailand's economic growth will slow in 2011 exports fail

Thailand's economic growth will slow in 2011 exports fail, the Ministry of Finance said that after today's report showed manufacturing expanded less than a year.

"Growth next year will return to a normal pattern," said Naris Chaiyasoot, the head of the Office of Public Finance, Ministry of Finance of the political reporters in Bangkok. "Consumption and investment are key factors. Exports, which led the growth of this year, will be fragile given the weakening global economy."

The Ministry of forecast gross domestic product will grow 4.5 percent in 2011 and raised estimates for this year to 7.8 percent from 7.5 percent. Thailand's dependence on foreign trade, which represents about 60 percent of the economy makes it vulnerable to swings in global demand.

the manufacturing output growth slowed unexpectedly in November to 5.6 percent from a year earlier after a revised advance of 6 percent in October, according to the Office of Industrial Economics.
"Industrial growth slowed as the recovery in the U.S. and Europe weighs export demand of electronic products," Lim said Chandara, chief economist at Moody's Analytics in Sydney, before the report. "Setting monetary tightening could undermine private investment and slow production orders over the next month."

The baht has gained more than 10 percent this year, the best performer in Asia after the Japanese yen and Malaysian ringgit, raising concerns that exports of Thailand can be more expensive relative to its regional rivals.

Effect baht

General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and Banpu PCL are among the companies that have blamed the strong baht for hurting sales outside Thailand.

Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij December 15, said the baht is likely to extend gains next year and capital flows will cause the volatile currency.

Earlier this month, the central bank raised its repo rate bond for a day in a quarter percentage point to 2 percent, indicating policy makers view inflation as a bigger threat than slowing growth. The governor said Prasarn Trairatvorakul Thailand December 24 can not have "low wages, a weaker baht and low interest rates forever."

the rapid growth of exports from Thailand to 28.5 percent in November, and shipments should increase by up to 28 percent this year, Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai said last week.

Naris The Finance Ministry said the economy probably grew 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter of last year after a jump of 6.7 percent in the last three months.

investors remain bullish on commodities that beat stocks and bonds for a second year

At one point in regard to money managers "have ranged from government stimulus file and the possibility of a new recession, investors remain bullish on commodities that beat stocks and bonds for a second year.

Measurement of Standard & Poor's GSCI advanced 20 percent more than the 9.1 percent gain in the MSCI World Index of shares and 5.3 percent return at a rate of Bank of America Merrill Lynch bond Treasury. Currency traders are betting on a stronger dollar, sending a signal to the contrary, because the products are moved in a direction opposite to the currency in 16 of the last 20 quarters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Silver, an investment and industrial equipment, jump as much as 37 percent next year, leading gains in the 15 products in a Bloomberg survey of over 100 analysts, traders and investors. Zinc, metal worst performer this year, is seen by 21 percent. Arabica coffee, which reached 13 years last week, will be the weakest performer, adding no more than 7 percent.

The strength of demand "was a surprise considering that just out of the worst recession since the 1930 massacre and the most active classes", based in London Roxana Mohammadian-Molina, one of a team 18 Barclays Capital analysts who correctly called the bottom of oil and copper last year, said by telephone on December 22. The bank said that the U.S. natural gas will be the only one of the 25 prices of commodities it follows that an average of less next year.

Shares Short

Global stocks are still near record $ 11 trillion 62.6 trillion U.S. dollars of market capitalization reached in October 2007, data compiled by Bloomberg. During the same period, assets under management of commodities increased about 80 percent to 354 billion U.S. dollars, and attract a total of $ 60 billion in new money this year, the second largest after 2009, estimates Barclays.

The S & P GSCI Index to extend last year's 50 percent advance, which also exceeded 27 percent jump in the MSCI World Index and the loss of 3.7 percent for Treasuries.

Investors favored commodities this year as China, the largest user of everything from coal to iron ore to zinc led to the recovery of the first global recession since the Second World War. The savings and expansion, competition for raw materials is increasing.

U.S. growth will rise to 3.25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 from 2.5 percent in the first, according to the average estimate of up to 66 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. China will slow to 9 percent next year from 10 percent in 2010, is still three times the U.S. rate and six times the speed of the euro area, polls show. China on Dec. 26 raised interest rates to counter inflation.

Goldman Picks

Commodities will be earning more than those in China is at least self-sufficient and less spare production capacity, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., led by London-based Jeffrey Currie. Oil, copper, cotton, soybeans and platinum are top picks of the bank.

Goldman forecast on 13 December, an increase of 18 percent of raw materials in 12 months, led by an increase of 28 percent in precious metals. This is consistent with the results of the Bloomberg survey.

Silver, precious metal commonly used in industry, rose 37 percent to a maximum of $ 40 an ounce next year from $ 29.1238 per ounce in trading in London on December 24, the survey shows. Palladium used in catalytic converters for cars, jump as much as 18 percent to $ 900 an ounce from $ 764 in operations in London on December 24.

Silver futures for March delivery rose 53 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $ 29,785 an ounce at 10:14 am on the Comex in New York. Palladium futures for March delivery gained $ 11.90, or 1.6 percent, to $ 779 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

London markets are closed today for the second day of the holidays.

Gold Outlook

"Investors will be cycling gold and silver, platinum and palladium, if the financial and economic conditions improve," said Jeffrey Christian, managing director of CPM Group, a research company in New York.

Christian correctly predicted in January that gold could reach $ 1.400 an ounce this year and is now price forecast to peak at $ 1550 in the first quarter before falling as low as $ 1,200. The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey is for a gain of 23 percent to a maximum of $ 1,700. Gold reached a record $ 1431.25 on December 7 in London to close at $ 1381.47 on December 24.

Gold futures for February delivery rose $ 18.70 or 1.4 percent, to $ 1,401.60 in the Comex.

The popularity of the precious metals, suggests that investors are seeking assurances that governments and central banks to inject money into the economies to sustain the recovery.

The Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark interest rate near zero since December 2008 and plans to inject 600 billion U.S. dollars in June the economy by purchasing bonds through the so-called quantitative easing. Already bought 1.7 trillion U.S. dollars of securities in a first phase that ended in March.

"Concern" fiscal

"I like gold because I worry that our fiscal and monetary policies make no sense," said David Einhorn, president of Greenlight Capital Inc., which manages about $ 6.8 billion of assets, in an interview in New York. "It potentially leads to a greater risk of further instability."

Investors increased their holdings of precious metals by 22 percent to a record 17,390 metric tons in the 10 months to 17 December, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That is worth about 111 billion U.S. dollars, of which 84 percent is 13 percent gold and silver, and the rest of platinum and palladium.

GSCI Returns

Returns for investors in commodities may be less than the spot rate suggests. The S & P GSCI Total Return, monitoring the net amount received, up 8.4 percent this year, reflecting the cost to maintain positions in futures markets. When longer-dated contracts cost more than the immediate delivery, a market structure known as contango, investors pay a premium to keep their farms as positions expire.

The commodity gains can evaporate if currency traders betting that the dollar will strengthen right.

Contracts dollar appreciation against the euro are at a maximum of three months and the U.S. Dollar Index against six counterparts gauge rose 6 percent from 4 November. The inverse relationship between foreign exchange and commodities last month reached the highest level in over a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

commodity experts surveyed by Bloomberg are betting this time will be different in the middle of the growing demand and dwindling stocks.

Copper deficiency

copper use will outpace supply by 825,000 tons next year, more than double the inventory in LME warehouses-up, according to Barclays Capital. The prices reached a record $ 9,392 a tonne on December 21 in London will rise to $ 10,475 next year, the Bloomberg survey. Zinc is the best performing industrial metal, advancing as much as 21 percent to $ 2,800 a tonne from $ 2,308 in London on 24 December.

Copper futures for March delivery rose 2.25 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $ 4.3025 a pound on the Comex. Earlier, the metal rose to a record high of $ 4.3195.

The demand may also come from new products listed. ETF Securities Ltd. began offering investors PTE supported by copper, tin and nickel from this month, attracting about $ 25 million to date. JPMorgan Chase & Co., BlackRock Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG plan similar products.

Weather markets

A stronger dollar can also be overcome by the weather on agricultural markets. Wheat as much as doubled since June and corn rose 83 percent as the worst drought in Russia in less than half a century, floods in Canada and the parched crop Kazakhstan and Europe in ruins.

While wheat is expected to increase to 17 percent, to $ 9.13 a bushel next year of $ 7.83 in Chicago on December 23 and maize by 14 percent to $ 7 a bushel to $ 6.14, the Coffee was chosen as probably the worst performer in the Bloomberg survey. Analysts see an increase of no more than 7 percent to $ 2.53 a pound from $ 2.359 a pound in New York on 23 December.

Wheat futures for March delivery rose 8.5 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $ 7.8875 a bushel today on the Chicago Board of Trade. Corn futures for March delivery rose 3.5 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $ 6.1875 a bushel, the profit straight session. The Arab-coffee futures for March delivery rose 1.05 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $ 2.385 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

"We see no imminent threat to the commodity prices in 2011," said Evan Smith, who helps manage U.S. $ 900 000 000 Global Investors Inc. in San Antonio. "You still have the concern for monetary stability in emerging economies is not the wealth effect is driving the demand."