The International Energy Agency may be overestimating the prospects of next year

The International Energy Agency may be overestimating the prospects of next year for the supply of crude oil produced by the exclusion of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to Nomura International Ltd.

The Paris-based energy consultant last month it expected crude supplies from non-OPEC countries will increase by about 800,000 barrels in 2011, while the group's production of natural gas liquids, which are not part of their production oil will increase by about 700,000 barrels a day.

"The IEA estimates are on the aggressive side," said Nomura analyst Michael Lo and Cheng Khoo in the note sent by email today. "OPEC NGL might come in lower than expected given the current weakness in natural gas market."

Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Algeria can not contribute to increase production as much as the IEA forecasts, because an oversupply in the market for natural gas may delay projects that extract liquid fuels, while methane production, Nomura said.

"The production of acceleration could be slower than expected because the gas is not fully contracted, which will result in lower production of liquid natural gas, analysts said.

exit rates decline in the former Soviet Union can accelerate to 4.6 percent next year from the average of 2.2 percent from 2002 to 2009, due to lack of incentives to increase exploration, Nomura said, citing Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd.