Precious metals, investors will probably give the best performers among commodities in the coming year, and won the worst, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
Precious metals are advancing 28 percent over 12 months and 4 percent won, the London-based Jeffrey Currie, Nathan Allison and other Goldman analysts in a report released today. The team increased its forecast for 12 months for the S & P GSCI Total Return Index Increased by 18 percent from 16 percent, mainly due to changes in agricultural estimates.
"Extreme weakness in U.S. demand in the last two years has enabled China to grow unrestricted without any competition for raw materials," said Goldman analysts in the report. "It is likely to change in 2011 with a strong U.S. is likely to be faced with a China that is consuming products dramatically before the crisis."
assets under management by commodity rose $ 19 billion to a record $ 340 billion in October, driven by demand for index-linked investment, Barclays Capital said in a report last month. Gold rose 27 percent this year, starting from 10 th consecutive annual gain. Investors seek hard assets such as governments and central banks led by the Federal Reserve to pump more than $ 2 trillion in the global financial system.
China's demand
High commodity prices will be needed to curb U.S. consumption, "to accommodate China's demand more," said Goldman. The raw materials are most concerned with tighter supply, including crude oil, copper, cotton, soybeans and platinum, analysts said. The S & P GSCI Total Return Index Mayor won a 7 percent this year.
Gold will reach $ 1,690 an ounce in 12 months, from $ 1,390 now, and probably peak next year, Goldman estimates. Gold exchange traded products backed by the metal reached a record high of 2,105 metric tons on Oct. 14 and farms were last seen in 2093 tonnes. That equates to about nine years of U.S. mining production.
"An environment of low real U.S. interest rates will continue in 2011, especially considering the resumption of quantitative easing measures in the U.S.," the analysts wrote. "However, when we look towards 2012, it seems appropriate to reiterate our view that the current gold price levels remains a credible job, but not a long term investment."
0 comments:
Post a Comment