Saturday, December 25, 2010

the economy is finally mounting a real recovery has strengthened this week

A growing sense that the economy is finally mounting a real recovery has strengthened this week the government released several pieces of building data. But progress still seemed modest and fragile, suggesting that even palpable improvement in the fortunes of the nation can not produce a vigorous economic expansion in the short term.

While millions of people are struggling to find work, and how many are losing their control over their homes - the addition of an excess supply causes anxiety even foreclosed real estate - many experts expect a significant period of pain may still be ahead .

Consumer spending, which comprises about 70 percent of the country's activity, increased in November - the most encouraging sign of all - and new and existing homes changed hands faster than in the previous month, although the levels is reduced to one year earlier.

But economists emphasized that significant pressures continue to weigh on U.S. consumers, which raises questions about the strength and sustainability of any recovery on the heels of the Great Recession. ordinary consumers are still absorbing the reality of household finances weakness, loss of wealth, large credit card debts, and gnawing worries about the labor market.

Until the economy can again be fueled by spending on the basis of solid paychecks and sustainable - a moment still far in average unemployment of 9.8 percent - the growth is unlikely to be powerful enough to be self-perpetuating, said economists. Ordinary people must do to improve your finances, as consumer demand and hiring companies to begin to reinforce each other.

"It's a mixed bag," said Chris Christopher, senior economist at Global Insight. "Some things look good, and certain things, well, wait and see."

Even things that are looking for are far better looking great.

Last month, consumer spending increased slightly, and home sales accelerated pace, according to data released on Wednesday and Thursday.

As the holiday season, consumers increased their spending by a relatively fast 0.4 percent in November from October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, revenue rose 0.3 percent in November.

But economists emphasized that these improvements were relatively modest. Expenditure and income growth were lower in November than in October. She looked much better, however, that a bleak September, when revenues do not grow at all.

home sales were also poor, even as you improve. Sales of existing homes rose by 5.6 percent in November, while sales of new homes rose 5.5 percent in the month, according to the new versions of, respectively, the National Association of Realtors and The U.S. Commerce Department. But when the criterion is the same month last year, November home sales fell 27.9 percent last year, and sales of new homes fell by 21.2 percent.

Property prices, meanwhile, continue to fall, so homeowners most vulnerable to the values and foreclosure, and banks continue to leave doubts about the extent of losses that may still have to absorb. That tends to make banks more conservative, they cling to their dollars in comparison to the loans out. tighter credit bank puts the clamps for businesses that otherwise could expand and hire.

In fact, economists this week tried to put together a coherent picture of a flood of contrasting points of data, many concluded that modest improvements were unlikely to prove sufficient to lead to robust consumer spending.

With the labor market remains weak and housing continues as a drain on the wealth of many Americans, consumers seemed unlikely to spend the dollars needed to promote a strong recovery.

Once the holiday season is over - and with it the impulse to purchase regular season - consumer spending is expected to decline before it grows again.

"That growth rate will not stay," said Anika Khan, an economist at Wells Fargo. "Consumers are still fixing their balance sheets."

After many went beyond their means in the years before the financial crisis, Americans are struggling to pay their debts. This process is not easy. During the third quarter, the bank canceled 16.8 billion U.S. dollars of debt, acceptance of loan losses not paid, according to a recent study. In net terms, consumers increased their debt during that period by $ 6.5 billion.

However, even if consumers remain generally cautious - and for good reason - the data published by the hope of Wednesday and Thursday amplified broader economic improvement. Gross Domestic Product, which measures the total output of the U.S. economy grew 2.6 percent in the third quarter, according to BEA.

Other factors promoting growth. If consumers are not driving, which are at least riding.

"The consumer is able to keep pace with the overall economy," said Robert Dye, senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group. "They are not advancing the economy, but are at the same pace."

Consumers face multiple problems. Although revenue rose last month, 9.8 percent of the workforce remains unemployed. The company, apparently waiting to pick up demand before resuming its expansion, are usually sitting on cash instead of using it to hire workers: In relation to current liabilities, companies are now flush with more than who have been in more than 50 years.

In fact, companies are well placed. Since last year, corporate profits have grown a massive 26.4 percent, the BEA data show.

But this advantage for leaders is not all bad for your aspiring employees. Even if companies are hoarding cash directly harm consumers, corporate profits are indirectly helping. Moreover, the business situation rose appears to be a major cause of the increase in consumer spending.

portfolios are relatively strong. While home prices fell in the third quarter, and homeowners saw the game you can claim in your most valuable asset to erode by 2 percentage points, the net worth of households increased by 2.2 percent recent data from the Federal Reserve. As the S & P 500 rose 9.6 percent during the third quarter, the gain in household wealth came almost entirely from the stock market.

portfolios of U.S. securities have been relatively optimistic, even as home values slide, said Christopher, economist at IHS Global Insight. Consumer confidence rose this month to reach its highest level since June, according to a statement Thursday from Reuters and the University of Michigan.

If house price declines seem obscure to some consumers, the gains of the stock market are relatively easy to perceive.

"You know almost every day what your money market shares are," said Christopher. "With housing, you do not know exactly how to respond to it."

In addition, earnings from operations are helping to compensate for loss of income and value of the house, said Bernard Baumohl, chief economist of the Group of Economic Outlook.

"Americans are in a much better position to spend again," Baumohl said, adding that as consumers take on more debt, they are doing it responsibly, according to their income.

"Households are certainly a lesson," he said.

Other economists cautioned that a strong recovery is still far away. Christopher said the unemployment crisis a "drag extreme." Kahn said the housing market is "dead in the water." Aaron Smith, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said the recovery has yet to achieve "escape velocity".

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