Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Dollar defies the skeptics as the best asset-back in November



The dollar was better investment last month, outperforming stocks, bonds and commodities, confusion officials around the world that the policies of the Federal Reserve said that debase the U.S. currency.

U.S. The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major U.S. trading partners, including the euro, yen and sterling, rose 5.2 percent in November. The Thomson Reuters / Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities has changed little. The MSCI All Country World Index of shares fell 2.2 percent after accounting for reinvested dividends. The bonds lost 1.1 percent, including reinvested interest, as measured by Global Bank of America Merrill Lynch broad market index.

While the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, said the decision of the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke 's to pump 600 billion U.S. dollars in the world's largest economy by buying Treasury bonds was "no idea", rising bond yields and signs of economic recovery increased the attractiveness of U.S. assets . UU .. The gain in the dollar index brought his progress for the year to 4.4 percent, behind the 5.3 percent rally in bonds, 5.5 percent of the population and 6.4 percent in prices jump commodities.

"Strong U.S. economic figures have helped the dollar," said Masataka Horii, one of four managers of the $ 35,900,000,000 Kokusai Global Sovereign Open in Tokyo, the largest bond fund in Asia. dollar holdings Sovereign World opened the account for 22 percent of the total, the second largest behind the 28 percent devoted to the assets in euros, he said.

Employment Growth

U.S. policy central bank also revived speculation that inflation will accelerate at the same time as growing concerns about demand dampened European sovereign bonds and shares. The Labor Department in two days to say that U.S. employers added jobs for the second consecutive month in November, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by us .

"The U.S. and European economies will bounce back next year," he said in an interview Horii. "The dollar and the euro will start becoming more attractive."

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. 's dollar index yesterday rose to 81,290 from 77,266 in late October. Last month's increase was the largest since the measure increased 5.8 percent in May. The index fell 0.4 percent at 7:43 am in New York, the first decline in four days, amid speculation the European Central Bank policymakers tomorrow's meeting could signal their willingness to act for prevent the spread of the debt crisis in the region.

Of the 16 most traded currencies, the dollar had its biggest gain against the euro, the strengthening of 7.43 percent, followed by an increase of 7.37 percent compared with a crown of Denmark and 6.17 percent, to Crown Norway.

Printing money

U.S. currency rose even as Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan, said the U.S. November 4 is implementing a "weak dollar policy" through its plan to buy Treasuries. Chinese central bank adviser Xia Bin, said the same day that Federal Reserve policy amounted to print "uncontrolled" money.

Speculation Fed purchases of Treasury bonds would succeed in preventing deflation and strengthening the recovery pushed U.S. government bonds low, driving the 10-year yield up to 2.96 percent on 16 November from 2.6 percent in late October.

The average yield of maturity of more than 19,400 bonds at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch rose to 2.54 percent from 2.27 percent on Oct. 31. Last month's decline was the largest since the index fell 1.5 percent in April 2004.

German bonds lost 0.2 percent, the U.S. government bonds fell 0.7 percent and Japanese debt fell 1.2 percent.

Ireland Bonds

Ireland bonds fell 11 percent, the biggest monthly drop since the Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes began in 1988. The country is seeking a ransom of € 85000000000 (U.S. $ 110 million) of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, becoming the second country after Greece to seek help.

Corporate bonds of U.S. fixed income Europe and Asia fell by 1 percent on average. The extra yield investors demand to own the debt rather than benchmark government bonds widened to 1.77 percentage points, from 1.64 to 31 October.

"The problem with the euro area is a problem that causes risk aversion," said Walter de Wet, head of commodity research at Standard Bank Plc in London, a unit of largest lender in southern Africa.

The Thomson Reuters / Jefferies Commodity Index ended November, to 301.41, after peaking at 25 months of 320.38 on Nov. 9. Wheat was the worst performer, declining 9.3 percent, followed by a 8.9 percent drop in corn and a 7.1 percent decline in orange juice.

Cheaper alternatives

Silver futures traded in New York led gains in commodities in November, bringing 14 percent because the metal is a cheaper alternative to gold for investors and jewelers, De Wet said. Gold rose to a record $ 1424.60 on 9 November, before the end of the month at $ 1386.02.

"The downside is likely to be limited from here" for commodities, De Wet said, forecasting the stimulus package by the Fed and China's demand will increase prices in the coming year. Is in favor of gold, copper and palladium for the next 6 to 12 months.

Shares worldwide snapped a gain of two months as the debt crisis in Europe and China's measures against inflation by curbing demand for the shares. The People's Bank of China raised its benchmark interest rates and deposit in October for the first time since 2007.

The MSCI All Country World Index fell 3.6 percent after returning in October and 9.6 percent in September, the largest monthly increase in back-to-back hike from 23 percent in April and May 2009.

Growth Prospects

"We have some recovery in equity markets," said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which manages about 93 billion U.S. dollars and is a unit of AMP Ltd. , the second largest asset manager in Australia. "There is nothing to be seen to indicate a return to recession."

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Nov. 18 that the global economy will expand 4.2 percent next year instead of 4.5 percent forecast in May. The growth will recover to 4.6 percent in 2012, the Paris-based group said in its semiannual economic outlook.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average returned 8 percent in November to 9937.04, the highest gain among the largest markets in the world of equity. The shares advanced as the yen to a two-month low against the dollar improved the prospects for export earnings.

Komatsu Ltd., the second world's largest manufacturer of construction equipment, Fast Retailing Co., operator of Japan's largest clothing chain, and TDK Corp., the world's largest maker of magnetic heads for disk drives, each one returned more than 17 percent.

Global Equities

The Euro Stoxx 50, a measure of equity in the countries using the euro, fell 6.4 percent including reinvested dividends as Ireland accepted the bailout of its banking sector. Refer to the debt crisis will spread to other countries sent from Spain IBEX 35 Index by 14 percent and the FTSE / ASE 20 index for the Greek populations in a loss of 10.2 percent.

Shanghai, China composite index fell for the first time in five months, losing 5.3 percent. 500 of Standard & Poor's U.S. equity returned 0.01 percent, after rising for two months.

0 comments:

Post a Comment