Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Clearing the loss of U.S. stocks Since the 2011 Lehman fuels Bulls

The breakthrough that raised 500 Standard & Poor's above its level before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008 is an encouraging sign for the bulls, technical analysts said.

The benchmark for U.S. stocks rose 0.6 percent to 1254.6 yesterday, surpassing its closing level of 1251.70 on September 12, 2008, the last trading session before Lehman Brothers filed the largest bankruptcy in the world . After closing within 1 percent of the milestones in five of the six previous days, the index may now have room to rise, according to analysts' forecasts based price charts.

"It's a psychological and technical victory for the market," said Christopher Verrone, chief technical analyst in New York Strategas Research Partners. "It strengthens the case that 2011 might be better than a lot of people expect."

U.S. Government and expenditure of the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy and 70 percent of S & P 500 surpassed profit forecasts for a record six consecutive quarters pushed the S & P 500, 85 per cent since March 2009. The final index from 2011 to 1374, according to the median projection of 11 strategists of the major Wall Street banks, which produces the largest rally of three years from 1997-1999.

The loss for the S & P 500 was 46 percent for the Lehman bankruptcy and March 9, 2009, as the worst recession since the 1930s intensified. The index began to recover three months before the contract ended in June 2009, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. You have to climb 25 percent to surpass its record of 1565.15 in October 2007.

'Kick-out'

In the week of the bankruptcy of Lehman, Bank of America Corp. took over Merrill Lynch & Co., as it teetered on collapse and the government seized American International Group Inc. The S & P 500 rose the last two days of the week after the government announced a plan to purge banks of toxic assets and crack down on short sellers.

"Lehman Brothers was really the kick-off to create this sense of fear, and we have not completely overcome that fear, but we are in a healing process," said Jeffrey Coons, president of Manning & Napier Advisors Inc. in Fairport, New York, which manages $ 35 billion. "The aggressive actions of the Fed right after Lehman continues today and has been an important engine for the stabilization of stock prices."

The S & P 500, up 13 percent in 2010, has advanced 6.3 percent in December after losing 0.2 percent in November and the publication of a total gain of 13 percent in September October, the largest increases in the months since 1998. The measure has risen 20 percent since the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke suggested on Aug. 27 that he was willing to buy bonds to stimulate economic growth.

Tax cuts, GE

The MSCI World Index, a gauge of 1,660 stocks in 24 developed countries in the U.S. Hong Kong, is 1 percent of the liquidation of 46 percent drop since the collapse of Lehman. The index has gained 85 percent since March 2009, central banks around the world kept interest rates historically low and governments spent billions of dollars to stimulate growth.

If the MSCI World erase his loss, "would be a positive development and optimistic," said Christian Bendixen, director of technical research in the New York Bay Crest Partners LLC. "It has a psychological meaning and anecdotal."

The S & P 500 has climbed 13 of the last 16 weeks. The last time this happened was in 2004, according to Howard Silverblatt, New York, S & P index analyst for the elderly. The advance of December was driven by an agreement between President Barack Obama and Republican lawmakers to extend tax exemptions, and reports showing consumer confidence, retail and manufacturing surpassed economists' forecasts.

Priceline, Ford

Consumer stocks in the S & P 500 as the online travel agency Priceline.com, Inc. in Dearborn, Michigan, Ford Motor Co., had recovered all its losses from Lehman Brothers in New York on March 4. 500 The S & P consumer discretionary index has risen by 21 percent since then.

Priceline, based in Norwalk, Connecticut, has increased almost five times from September 2008 to $ 407, driven by a surge in hotel stays and international travel. Ford, most profitable automaker in the world and the only major U.S. car company to avoid bankruptcy last year, more than triple to $ 16.99 in demand for trucks and sport utility vehicles revived.

Analysts expect the S & P 500, earnings amount to $ 85.33 per share in 2010, up 38 percent from $ 61.77 per share in 2009. That's the biggest increase since 1988.

"The market is responding to earnings," said Hayes Miller, head of Boston's asset allocation in North America at Baring Asset Management Inc., which oversees about $ 50.6 billion U.S. dollars. "It is a commentary on business flexibility, the ability of companies to reduce costs and increase productivity. This seems likely to last until 2011."

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