Thursday, November 18, 2010

U.S rose for a fourth consecutive month

The U.S. index of leading indicators rose for the fourth consecutive month, manufacturing increased in the Philadelphia area and jobless claims rose less than expected, indicating the U.S. economy is accelerating.

"The slump is behind us," said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York. "We have a little more momentum. Employers are getting a little more optimistic about the prospects and do not need to reduce costs as before."

The Conference Board's measure of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.5 percent for a second consecutive time, capping the biggest gains of back-to-back "from February to March, the research group in New York , said today. The factories in the Philadelphia region expanded at its fastest pace this year, and the number of workers seeking unemployment benefits during the past four weeks fell to its lowest level in two years.

Reports suggest the Federal Reserve's efforts to stimulate growth will pay off in the coming months as rising stock prices, close to historically low interest rates and improved job Americans will help finance repair market in tatters. The data gave the stocks rise after Ireland and went to get a bailout from the European Union, a new momentum.

500 of Standard & Poor's rose 1.7 percent to 1,198.07 at 11:55 am in New York. Treasuries fell, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year to 2.94 percent from 2.88 percent late yesterday.

Philadelphia factories

general economic index of the Philadelphia Fed rose to 22.5, the highest since December, from a previous month. Readings greater than zero signal expansion in the area that covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. The meter is forecast to increase to 5.

Applications for unemployment insurance payments increased in 2000 to 439,000 in the week ended Nov. 13, the Labor Department figures showed. The four-week moving average, a less volatile weekly figures, fell to 443,000, the lowest level since September 2008.

"Growth is reaccelerating in the fourth quarter after a slow third quarter," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief economist of MF Global Ltd. in New York. "It is still unclear how much of reaccelerating and acceleration extent possible."

The estimates for the index of 58 leading economists surveyed ranged from gains of 0.2 percent to 0.8 percent.

Prices, Stocks

Major contributors to the increase of the most important indicators were the difference between interest rates in the short and long term, and rising stock prices and money supply.

Bernanke said Oct. 15 that further monetary stimulus would be justified because inflation is too low and unemployment was very high. This month, policy makers announced a plan to buy another $ 600 billion in Treasury securities to maintain low interest rates to prevent inflation and much slower.

Stocks rallied last month in anticipation of Fed action. The October gain in the S & P 500 followed a 8.8 percent increase in the month before, the best performance of back-to-back "more than a year.

The Conference Board index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, rose 0.1 in October after no change the last two months. The indicator tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production - the measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of U.S. recessions.

The index of lagging indicators increased 0.1 percent last month. The index measures business lending, length of unemployment, service prices and ratios of labor costs, inventories and consumer credit.

Distribution Index

Seven of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index are known ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits, consumer expectations, the yield curve, hours of factory and supplier delivery times . The Conference Board estimates new orders for consumer goods, stocks of capital goods and money supply adjusted for inflation.

The income gains and stock prices are helping families repair tattered finances over a year in economic recovery that began in June 2009.

Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. lender, for 5.6 billion U.S. dollars for credit losses in the third quarter, compared with 8.1 billion U.S. dollars in the second quarter and 11.7 billion U.S. dollars the previous year. Net writedowns of bad loans in the Charlotte-based lender in North Carolina declined 25 percent.

"Everything we see points to a continued recovery, although slow recovery," said Bank of America CEO Brian T. Moynihan at a conference sponsored by the company on 16 November. Commercial lending is beginning to turn around and consumers are spending more on leisure, said.

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