La Nina Cooling May Mean More Snow and Storms, Higher Fuel Prices for U.S.

Snowstorms, droughts, floods and hurricanes increased in the store can be a cooling trend in the Pacific known as La Niña changes the climate around the world and threatens to raise fuel prices for heating and crops.

The possibility of stormy months ahead to the northern U.S. may bring some volatility to the natural gas market in the coming weeks, said Cameron Horwitz, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity Inc. in Houston.

In 1995, after one of the seasons most active Atlantic hurricane in history, a girl in combination with other weather patterns to achieve one of the snowiest winters in New York and New England, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration records. prices of heating oil jumped 14 percent and natural gas rose 52 percent this year.

The next winter, "can get off to a fast start, and by that I mean it can be a monster of a storm relatively early this year, if not the end of November then December," said Joe Bastardi, chief meteorologist AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. "I mean a blockbuster near the east coast."

Northeast U.S. largest is heating oil market, while about 52 percent of U.S. households use natural gas for heating. Natural gas for December delivery fell 3.8 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $ 4,233 per million British thermal units at 1:20 pm in the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices were set yesterday at $ 4,271, the highest since Aug. 13. Heating oil for December delivery fell 0.49 cent to $ 2.2637 a gallon.

Cooling Pacific

La Nina is a cooling of the equatorial Pacific. On average, occurs every three to five years and lasts nine to 12 months, some persist up to two years.

In addition to more snow to the East, it can mean drier conditions in Texas and Oklahoma for hard red wheat crop and less snow cover for winter wheat across parts of the Plains, said Allen Motew, a meteorologist at the interval QT time in Chicago. Chicago contract, wheat, the benchmark is up 26 percent this year and hit a 23-month $ 8.68 a bushel on Aug. 6.

This year La Nina also brought more heavy rain than normal in parts of Asia. The rains have flooded Niña-linked farms and mines in Southeast Asia, helping to drive rubber 30 - year high, stopping production of tin in Indonesia and flooded rice fields of Vietnam to the Philippines.

In South America, dry weather caused by La Nina could affect corn and soybean in Argentina, the Fundación Valores said.

Impact Australia

The phenomenon is watched closely in Australia, the world's driest inhabited continent.

Australia had wettest September on your record as La Niña brought above average rainfall in the north and east, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Officials in New South Wales declared a state of drought free for the first time in nine years as rain increased the wheat crop and provide water for the planting of cotton and rice.

Ashley Ratcliff, head coach of the Yalumba wine company in Angaston, Australia, said the excess rain can also be a problem.

"If the rain is over, there are some significant drawbacks, such as loss of crops, decreased quality and increased input costs as a result of the management of fungal diseases," said Ratcliff.

If La Niña to last until next year, as some forecast models predict, could mean another active hurricane season for 2011. La Niña reduces wind shear over the Atlantic that the tears in the structure of tropical storms and hurricanes.

In 1995, there were 19 storms in the Atlantic, the third highest figure in the books and tie this year, according to NOAA.

Atlantic Oscillation

immediate impact of La Niña in the northeastern U.S. also depends on the North Atlantic Oscillation, an atmospheric pressure change, said Tom Downs, a meteorologist with Weather 2000 Inc. in New York.

The air temperature determines whether the systems La Niña produces rain or snow, said Downs, and the temperature of the air depends largely on the swing, which can affect an area of eastern North America Western Europe .

"Last year was a good example where we had a very negative North Atlantic Oscillation for most of winter and allowed a lot of cold air outbreaks in the eastern third of the nation," said Downs. "If we had a girl in place that could have had a scenario like 1995-1996."

A record of 75.6 inches of snow fell in Central Park in New York in the winter of 1995-96, when a girl combined with a cold phase of the oscillation, according to the National Weather Service.

Snow Record

For the winter of 2009-2010, when the warm Pacific, 51.4 inches fell in New York, while parts of the coast of the South Atlantic and set records snowfall. Baltimore received over 80 inches, compared with a normal of about 16.

Heating oil should be adequate to handle the arrival of winter in the U.S., "said Tom Knight, vice president of operations and the provision of Truman Arnold Cos. in Texarkana, Texas.

"We do not anticipate any shortages," said Knight. "There seems to be an adequate supply at all, although there is a constant appetite for exports of distillate."