Monday, December 20, 2010

a summary of some other leaders and laggards in the S & P 500 this year

Here is a summary of some other leaders and laggards in the S & P 500 this year:

Akamai Technologies Inc., based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, helps to deliver customized content and control Internet traffic. This is an action in which fortunes were made and lost.

From a peak of more than $ 327 per share in 1999, Akamai was reduced to less than $ 1 per share in 2002. Since then it has regained traction and increased to about $ 50. Good company, bad-stock syndrome applies here. I believe that the stock price premium of 51 times earnings and revenue nearly nine times.

In the Clouds

After Salesforce.com Inc., which is so popular among investors as Akamai was 11 years ago. A leader in cloud computing for businesses, Salesforce saw its revenue grow to $ 1.1 billion last year $ 51 million in fiscal 2003.

Shares of the San Francisco company, has advanced 86 percent so far this year.

Computer that is storing files and programs on the servers of a host is here to stay. Allows vendors in different cities to share notes and comments with ease. However, I can give you three good reasons not to invest in Salesforce.

First, at 245 times earnings for the last four quarters, has built high expectations in the stock price. Second, analysts expect that its diluted earnings per share to fall by more than 20 percent this fiscal year, which ends in January 2011, before growth resumes in the next two years. Third, Microsoft is taking aim explicit in its market.

Betting on China

Wynn Resorts Ltd. also seems overstated. The operator of luxury casinos in Las Vegas, his hometown, and Macao, China, is priced as a hot growth stock to 83 times earnings. However, his best result of the revenue, $ 5.63 per share, reached in 2006. This year analysts expect earn about $ 1.14.

Priceline.com Inc., based in Norwalk, Connecticut, is up 85 percent. I think it offers a useful service online shopping, and advertisements featuring actor William Shatner are fun. But paying 12 times book value and 42 times earnings? No way.

One might expect to find best deals among the S & P 500 laggards. The harvest this year of low performance does not excite me much, but I think it is possible rebound in H & R Block Inc. and Apollo Group Inc.

The biggest loser in the index of Dean Foods Co., up about 55 percent so far this year. The Dallas-based food and beverage company is cheap at least eight times earnings, but its debt-equity ratio of 271 percent is too high.

Yes, I know that dairy products, Dean's specialty, is supposed to be a stable business that can withstand a heavy debt load. But experience suggests that the debt does not matter - until it does.

Rebound potential

H & R Block, the largest U.S. tax preparer, has lost about 43 percent this year. The company Kansas City, Missouri, has problems - remaining after an incursion of dirt in mortgage lending, and increased competition from sellers of tax preparation software - but I think it has a potential return. At eight times earnings, I think H & R Block is a good candidate for either a quick rebound in January and a good year in 2011.

Apollo Group has fallen about 36 percent. I wrote about this company and its competitors last month. I believe Apollo is more capable than most companies nonprofit education to meet the proposed federal standards. Shares of Phoenix-based company to go for seven times earnings.

Heavy debt

Supervalu Inc., a grocery and pharmaceutical distribution company based in Eden Prairie, Minnesota, is trading for just five times earnings. It is tempting, but I worry about the debt of the company, which is almost five times its equity. The stock has fallen 31 percent.

Finally, PulteGroup Inc has lost about 30 percent. I think it will take a while for homebuilders to make money again because of overbuilding from 2000 to 2006 and due to the large number of foreclosed homes coming to market now. With a debt of 187 percent of capital and profits of the company remains negative, I would expect.

This column has focused primarily on stocks to avoid. Next week I will look at the other side of the coin

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