here are 10 things that may (or may not) happen in 2011

There is an old joke that economists make predictions only for the kids to have time to laugh at someone. In the same vein, once a year, this column also makes some predictions - but only economists have something to laugh more.

With this caveat in mind, here are 10 things that may (or may not) happen in 2011:

No. 1. Yields rising market. In fact we have been in a bull market more than a year. Just take a look at the numbers. But in the early stages of a cycle of increased capital, no one says it's a bull market. First call it a dead cat bounce. Then they call it a bear market rally. In late 2011, the currency will have fallen. We will be officially in the territory of bulls. At the end of the year, around the world have begun chip back in action again.

No. 2. Accidents alternative investment industry. The primary driver of hedge funds and private equity funds was the search for profitability. With stock markets in the doldrums, interest rates cut to almost nothing, and bond yields at historic lows, investors were desperate for any significant return of their money. They were willing to listen to the managers of hedge funds stain that pledged to make 30 percent a year on the high speed of yak hide arbitration. The next year, rising interest rates, and thus adheres performance and stock returns. Why bother paying a fortune to hedge fund managers and private equity, some of whom keep their promises, when you can get pretty decent returns mainstream investment?

No. 3. Return on risk capital. The launch of the industry received a terrible beating from the collapse of the dot-com. But usually rough, a decade is enough time for financial markets to unwind. There are fantastic opportunities out there. Smartphone applications. Social networks. Alternative energy. Africa. The markets always have room for some optimists blue sky - and 2011 will be the year that venture capitalists fill that space again.

No. 4. France was smoked in the crisis of the euro. Somehow, France has managed to get grouped together with Germany as one of the strong euro countries. But it has a larger budget deficit than Italy. With chronic unemployment and low growth. Fundamentally, has the highest resistance to reform. The slightest suggestion of extending the working hours, or the retirement age, or the reform of public services, calls mass protests. It can not last. Next year is when it rolls France with Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain.

No. 5. Apple Inc. reaction begins. We used to think that International Business Machines Corp. was a kind of loss. Then it was Microsoft Corp. But the company now has too much power, is run by control freaks, and puts profits before principles? That's right. the third largest company in the world, measured by market value, is about to discover that the line between fresh upstart ugly monopoly is very thin.

No. 6. The German is back in fashion. German words and fashion go together about as well as Greece and solvent. But in a world trying to figure out how to get out of a debt crisis, the Rhineland model of capitalism is soon going to look very attractive. Many mid-sized companies with strong technical expertise, low debt and skilled manpower export of niche products to the world - which sounds like a good formula for success in the 2010 decade. In late 2011, we expect every CEO in the world to start talking seriously about looking for a German management model as your guide.

No. 7. Lloyds Banking Group Plc is broken up. The hasty merger between two major UK banks, Lloyds and HBOS Plc, increasingly looks like one of the most disastrous decisions made during the height of the credit crisis. It is too powerful. This will be the year they were separated.

No. 8. Iceland teaches the world a lesson. Two years ago, all governments of the world, bought the idea that we had to bail out their banks. If collapsed, which would go directly back to the Stone Age. A country challenged the consensus. Iceland can not afford to keep up their banks. What happened? There has been pain, sure, but from next year the economy should grow again, inflation is under control and interest rates are falling. If Iceland keep the recovery, there is only one conclusion: There is no need to bail out the banks, after all.

No. 9. Russia puts the R in BRIC again. We have heard a lot about the growing economic power of Brazil, India and China. Much less is heard about the R in BRIC - - Russia. It tends to be dismissed as a supplier of raw materials an authoritarian government. But trying to recreate in a technological power - look at the plans to create a new Silicon Valley in the suburb of Moscow Skolkovo. Crazy? Remember, this was the first country to put a man into space. Russia has always been scientifically advanced. If you can put your brain and businessmen together, however, could eclipse the B, I and C in the acronym.

No. 10. A backlash against Christmas e-cards. Is it really necessary holiday greetings from a small bank in Latvia that I have never spoken? Does the management consulting company in Austria sincere in wishing me the best for the holiday season? I doubt it. Listen guys. It is not reflective. Is not playing. Is spam. Frankly, I prefer to get another email from that company that supplies Ukraine friendly Viagra without a prescription. At Christmas of 2011, sending e-cards will be socially unacceptable - and none too soon.