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Friday, December 3, 2010

Stocks in U.S. Gain as Commodities dollar weakens after jobs data

U.S. stocks raw materials increased and extended its biggest weekly rise in more than a year as a falling dollar drove oil prices and metals, helping to overcome a drop early action following an unexpected rise in unemployment.

The Standard & Poor's 500 rose 0.3 percent to 1,224.71 at 4 pm in New York, adding to gains in the last half hour after CBS reported that the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke has not ruled out expanding the central bank program to buy assets beyond $ 600 billion. The dollar index lost 1.5 percent to its biggest drop since July. Oil rose to a 25 - month high near $ 89 a barrel and the S & P / GSCI index of prices rose to its highest level in more than two years.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 earnings rose more than 3.2 percent in the last two days I was optimism in the economy was driven by home sales and retail purchases that exceeded projections and assessment of the Fed that recovery is gaining strength in most regions. Earlier today the decline came after the Labor Department said U.S. payrolls increased by 39,000 last month, behind the median forecast of economists in a  survey for an increase of 150,000 jobs.

"The fact that stocks rallied despite a bad jobs report is a good sign," said Michael Holland, who oversees more than $ 4 billion as chairman of Holland & Co. in New York. "People are starting to focus on other economic data points showing that the economy will surprise positively. Is a reason to buy into the rally. It is a bad place for anyone who bet against stocks."

Weekly Rally

The S & P 500 rose 3 percent this week, its biggest gain in a month, with Newmont Mining Co. and Schlumberger Ltd. stimulating progress today in commodity shares. The Thomson Reuters / Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities rose 1.3 percent today and met the 5 percent this week, its biggest increase since October 2009.

The dollar weakened against 14 of 16 major pairs, losing more than 1.7 percent against the Swedish krona, Swiss franc and Norwegian krone. The drop came after the government in November employment report showed the unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent, pointing to economic weakness is likely to keep the Fed's money pumping into the financial system.

"It will present a challenge to short-term views on the labor market, however at this point I do not think it will be detrimental to earnings expectations in 2011," said David Sowerby, a field Hills, Michigan, fund manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., which oversees $ 150 billion. "There has been a separation between the lack of health and labor market conditions very positive for corporate balance sheets. The benefits traditionally rebound before making markets work."

Bernanke Interview

Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, in a television interview on CBS "60 Minutes", defended the Fed's decision to purchase $ 600 billion in Treasury bills and did not rule out extending the program, the network said.

"It explains why the Fed announced its intention to buy $ 600 billion in Treasury securities, the defense against the charges of the measure will lead to inflation and does not rule out buying more," according to a press release today CBS.

Stocks recovered from their lows of the session in the first half hour after the service industries expanded in November at its fastest pace in six months. The index of the Institute for Supply Management non-manufacturing, which covers about 90 percent of the economy, rose to 55 last month from 54.3 in October. A reading above 50 signals growth.

European shares erased earlier gains, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.3 percent. GN Store Nord A / S fell 4.4 percent after Telekomunikacja Polska SA filed a complaint for arbitration.

Portuguese, Irish Bonds

Portugal and Ireland met bonds after the European Central Bank bought the debt of the nation today as policy makers try to combat the crisis in the region of the debt, according to people with knowledge of the transactions. An ECB spokesman declined to comment Frankfurt

The extra yield, or spread, investors demand to hold the values of 10 years Irish Landmark German bonds fell 39 basis points to 529 basis points, while the Portuguese-German spread fell 25 basis points to 307 points basic.

The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of credit-default swaps on 50 companies with credit ratings on all high performance fell 7.3 basis points at an average price of 469.5.

Ruble rallies

The ruble appreciated 0.6 percent against the dollar after Russia was destined to host the World Cup 2018. Russia's MICEX Index advanced 1.1 percent to the highest level since July 2008, OAO Severstal and OAO Novolipetsk Steel rose more than 3 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rallied 0.8 percent.

Copper extended its biggest weekly gain in four months, the March futures rising 0.5 percent to $ 3.999 a pound and gaining 6.3 percent in the last five days.

Cotton futures rose, heading for the biggest weekly gain in 39 years, the growing concern that supplies will be limited in India, the world's largest exporter after the U.S. Prices rose the maximum allowed by the exchange for a third day, rising six cents to $ 1.3234 a pound weekly demonstration expand to 18 percent. Wheat reached its highest price in almost four months of heavy rains in Australia concerns delayed the harvest.

U.S. service economy grows more than expected as ISM index rises to 55

Service industries expanded in November at its fastest pace in six months, showing the U.S. recovery is expanding throughout the year comes to an end.

The index of the Institute for Supply Management non-manufacturing, which covers about 90 percent of the economy, rose to 55 last month from 54.3 in October. A reading above 50 signals growth.

Target Corp. is one of the largest retailers and sales during the holiday shopping season, testament to the earnings of the costs needed to encourage U.S. companies to increase hiring. A report from the Labor Department today showed the economy generates fewer jobs than expected last month while the unemployment rate rose to its highest level since April.

"The economy is improving," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina. "It's a slow recovery. The consumer is beginning to happen, begin to show renewed confidence in recovery."

The median forecast of 76 economists surveyed by us expected the ISM index would rise to 54.8. Estimates ranged from 52.3 to 59.4.

Shares trim losses and Treasuries rose after the report. 500 of Standard & Poor's fell 0.2 percent to 1,219.27 at 10:39 am in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which moves inversely to its price, fell to 2.96 percent from 2.99 percent late yesterday.

November Employment

Employers added 39,000 workers to their payrolls in November, less than the most pessimistic forecast of economists surveyed by us, the Labor Department figures showed today. The unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent from 9.6 percent. In October 2009, unemployment rose to a maximum of 26 years of 10.1 percent.

The ISM non-manufacturing employment increased to 52.7, the highest since October 2007, from 50.9 the previous month. The measure of new orders rose to 57.7, the highest since April, from 56.7. Business activity fell to 57 from 58.4.

The ISM's prices paid index fell to 63.2 from 68.3 the previous month.

The survey covers the services industries ranging from utilities and traders to health care, housing, finance and transport. The group index of the factory, published on 1 December fell to 56.6 last month from 56.9 in October.

The services index averaged 56.1 in the five years to December 2007, when the last recession. Is an average of 51.6 since the current recovery began in June 2009 through October, behind the 55.2 reading for the ISM manufacturing index over the same period.

Consumer spending

The recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s has been led by manufacturing exports have increased, business investment picked up and inventories are replenished. While the housing industry remains a weak link, consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy has been growing.

The Federal Reserve, in its latest survey of regional economies, said on 01 December the economy was strong in much of the U.S. the hiring of the improvement, expansion of manufacturing and retailers anticipated a holiday shopping season stronger. The survey covered the period from early October to mid November.

Sales Target, Limited Brands Inc. and Costco Wholesale Corp. rose more than analysts estimated in November as more consumer goods to insurance broke off, especially during the weekend of Thanksgiving.

Estimated sales for Thanksgiving and three days after U.S. holidays reached $ 45 billion, a gain of 9.1 percent from a year ago, as the number of buyers increased by 8.7 percent to $ 212 million, according to the National Retail Federation.

November Sales

"November sales were better than expected, driven by strong customer traffic during the month," said Gregg Steinhafel, Target's executive director, yesterday in a statement.

At the same time, construction is one of the industries that have weighed on the non-manufacturing ISM survey and stay home sales near historic lows. new homes sold at an annual rate of 283,000 in October, near its lowest point of all time and below a recent peak of 1.39 million in July 2005.

"Sales of new homes are extremely low," said Larry W. Seay, chief financial officer of Meritage Homes Corp., in a teleconference on 11 November. "The reason sales are so low due to fear" that potential buyers "could lose their jobs."

As part of an effort to reach some of the largest employers in the nation, President Barack Obama met with Wal-Mart Stores Inc., CEO, Mike Duke at the White House on 29 November. The meeting is part of a series of meetings to seek the views of businesses, aimed to spur recovery and adding jobs.

Euro may reach $ 1.25 in 2011 Ichimoku



The fall of the euro in the last month has led to the currency through key levels on a table Ichimoku call, indicating the decline may continue to $ 1.25 next year, Merrill Lynch Bank of America said, citing patterns trade.

The single currency reached a maximum of nine months of $ 1.4282 on Nov. 4, from $ 1.1877 on June 7, the lowest level since March 2006. The currency broke below the bottom of a chart Ichimoku the $ 1.3374 level, and its line of short-term conversion crossed below its long-term base. Also fell below $ 1.3080, representing a 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from June to November.

"After the euro broke below on key Ichimoku and Fibonacci levels, the momentum is clearly downward," said Tomoko Fujii, senior currency strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Tokyo. "With the downward trend likely to continue for at least several quarters, the euro will go down four-year high in June."

$ 1.2796 level "comes naturally to the view" as it is a 61.8 percent decline from a peak last month, with the next key level of $ 1.2445, a 76.4 percent change, Fujii said, citing the percentage changes provided by the Fibonacci sequence. The euro may fall below $ 1.25 next year at the earliest and the middle of next year at the latest, he said.

The currency has been the worst performer against the dollar so far this year after the Danish krone.

Ichimoku letters are used to predict the direction of a coin by analyzing the midpoints of highs and lows. Line charts conversion of the sum of the highest high and lowest low over the last nine trading days. The baseline is the same calculation in the last 26 days. The tag refers to the area between the lines first section and the second leader in the table and is used to show an area where buy orders may be grouped.

Fibonacci analysis is based on the idea that asset prices reach the peaks and valleys in a specific percentage of past trends in the table.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts charts on trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in the security, commodity, currency or index.

Cotton Has Biggest Weekly Gain in 39 Years


Cotton prices rose, capping the biggest weekly gain in 39 years, the growing concern that exports will be limited in India, the second largest producer in the world.

shipments of cotton yarn will be capped at 720,000 metric tons in the year that began October 1 in a bid to stabilize domestic prices and increase supply, the government of India said Dec. 1. New York futures have soared 75 percent this year as demand in China rose and stocks fell in the U.S., the leading exporter.

"India is not reliable," said Keith Brown, president of Keith Brown & Co., a brokerage firm in Moultrie, Georgia. "We have not solved any problem."

For the third consecutive day, the futures prices of U.S. ICE most animals raised. Cotton for March delivery rose the limit of 6 cents, or 4.7 percent, to settle at 1.3234 dollars per pound at 2:56 pm in New York, the biggest gain since July 2009.

May and July contracts also rose by the exchange limit.

This week, the most active contract rose by 18 percent, the most since July 9, 1971. Cotton rose to a record $ 1.5195 on 10 November.

Cotton has "seen a lot of bullish news such problems in India this week and we had some good export sales last week" for U.S. supplies, said Jack Scoville, vice president of futures prices Group Inc . in Chicago. "We have finished our correction, and we go to the races."

The increase in exports

U.S. cotton shipments totaled 322,977 bales in the week ended Nov. 25 compared with 250,684 the previous year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said yesterday. A bullet weighs 480 pounds, or 218 kilograms. China is the largest producer and consumer.

U.S. inventories have fallen 74 percent this year, heading for the biggest annual fall since at least 2003, when the data starts. Stocks held in warehouses monitored by ICE fell to bullets in October 8910, playing at least a minimum of eight years.

In July, there may be a "crisis" in the market because "they have exhausted all of the offer last year and have yet to reap the harvest of next year," said Brown, Keith Brown & Co.. "That's when the market could go into what I call 'the white heat," which is as hot as it gets to the head. "

Last month, the USDA projected to increase plantings by 21 percent to 11.04 million acres in the spring. Wheat and feed grain area decrease, the agency said in a report of 09 November. In India, production will rise to 26 million bales in the season that began on 1 August to 12 percent over the previous year, USDA estimates.

"Squeeze" December

Cotton for December delivery rose to 12.64 cents, or 9.2 percent, to $ 1.4998.

"The pressure we are seeing indicates that the immediate demand for cotton remains strong," said OA Cleveland, analyst cottonexperts.com in Starkville, Mississippi. "People are struggling more than 70,000 bullets."

Last month, Cleveland predicted the contract jumped 20 cents to $ 1,479 went to lapse. The last trading day is December 8.

As of today, 697 contracts, or about 72,500 bales were called for physical delivery, according to the exchange.

Crude oil futures increase to 25 months ago in New York as Dollar Falls

Crude oil rose to its highest level in 25 months, while the dollar fell, increasing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

Oil jumped 1.4 percent in the dollar index fell to its lowest level since Nov. 23 after U.S. employers added fewer jobs than expected in November. The unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. Futures for delivery from 2013 to 2018 fell below the price of the current month.

"The increase is due to a dollar much lower," said Hamza Khan, an analyst of Schork Group Inc., a consulting firm in Villanova, Pennsylvania. "This is not based on fundamentals."

Crude oil for January delivery rose $ 1.19 to settle at $ 89.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price since Oct. 7, 2008. Futures rose 6.5 percent this week and 12 percent this year.

Oil futures for delivery in March 2012 decreased as the shorter-term contracts rose, a sign that the participants are betting on reducing the slope of a price increase in the coming years. The long-term contracts moved to a market structure known as backwardation.

"The movement has been working for a while, and that's what you expect when the fundamentals are tightening," said Costanza Jacazio, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in New York. "Since the end of September we have seen a major redesign. The trend has changed."

Dollar Index

The dollar index, which is the currency against six others, fell 1.1 percent, the most since October 20, 14:38 in New York. The U.S. currency fell 1.2 percent to $ 1.3371 per euro, compared with $ 1.3209 yesterday.

The Thomson Reuters / Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials advanced 1.3 percent to 316.16, the strongest level since 10 November. Fifteen of the commodities increased.

"The rally continues, with $ 90 now in sight," said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. "We shrugged off the unemployment figures because of the way in which the dollar reacted to it."

U.S. payrolls increased 39 thousand less than the most pessimistic forecast of economists surveyed by us, according to Labor Department figures released today in Washington, a fuel demand signal may be slow to recover. The unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent, the highest since April, the Labor Department figures showed today.

Fuel Consumption

Fuel consumption U.S. decreased 1.8 percent in the week ended on Nov. 26 to 18,500,000 barrels, the lowest since the seven days that ended on 15 October an Energy Department report this week showed. It was the third weekly decline.

"When the market does not sell on bearish news, it shows that there is a kind of inner strength there," said Matt Smith, a commodities analyst at Summit Energy in Louisville, Kentucky.

The index of the Institute for Supply Management non-manufacturing, which covers about 90 percent of the economy, rose to 55 in November from 54.3 the previous month. A reading above 50 signals growth.

Oil extended gains, touching $ 89.33 a barrel in intraday trading after breaking support at $ 88.63, the highest of 11 November.

"Some of it is just the ongoing bull market sentiment only briefly influenced by the employment report," said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. "The softer U.S. dollar is one approach, although it has been a real argument of convenience. We are not implemented in any consistent manner."

$ 120 oil

Oil advances to $ 120 a barrel before the end of 2012 as consumption grows in emerging economies, according to a report today by JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Crude futures in New York will average $ 93 a barrel next year, compared with a previous estimate of $ 89.75 and London Brent crude will average $ 95 a barrel, compared with an earlier assessment $ 91.75, the bank's analysts forecast.

"Strong growth in oil demand emerging in the next 24 months is likely to pick up the call on OPEC production levels last seen at the top of the rise in oil prices in 2008," analysts led by Lawrence Eagles in New York, said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for about 40 percent of global supplies is unlikely to increase production in the first half of next year unless prices increase by $ 100 a barrel, said analysts. oil ministers of OPEC meeting Dec. 11 in Quito, Ecuador.

Brent crude oil for January settlement on the ICE Futures exchange in London, Europe won 73 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $ 91.42 a barrel. Earlier, it reached a maximum of two years of $ 91.85 a barrel.

volume of oil in electronic commerce on the Nymex was 756,029 contracts in New York 14:42. Volume was 712,492 contracts yesterday, 2.7 percent above the average of the last three months. Open interest was 1.37 million contracts.