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Friday, November 26, 2010

council member governments can increase the size of the rescue fund said by ECB

European Central Bank, Axel Weber, said council member governments can increase the size of the rescue fund led by the European Union if necessary to restore confidence in the euro.

"Seven hundred and fifty billion should be sufficient to ensure the markets," Weber said the German embassy in Paris yesterday afternoon. "Otherwise you will have to be increased." In the worst cases, the fund would have an additional 140 million euros (187 billion), an amount that would not endanger the survival of the euro, Weber said in Berlin.

The spread of European sovereign debt crisis is spreading to Spain, sparking concern that the rescue fund created in May is not large enough to rescue the fourth largest economy in the euro region. The Spanish debt premium over German bonds rose to a record of the euro was at night and Portugal bonds fell on concern that follow Ireland and Greece to ask for outside help.

"It is not clear whether the fund can be increased as easily as that," because governments may face internal resistance to a recharge request, Commerzbank AG analysts wrote in a research note today. "So there is a danger that the markets are going to consider that this statement is premature, which increases the market skepticism about the ability to act between those responsible."

Spain's economy is almost twice the size of Portugal, Greece and Ireland combined. Finance Assistant MinisterJose Manuel Campa, said in an interview yesterday the country's financial position for the remainder of the year is "comfortable."

Spanish Performance

The yield on the government of Spain to 10 years rose to 5.17 percent at 4:37 pm in London. The euro traded at $ 1.3370.

The European Union and the International Monetary Fund established the fund of 750 billion euros in May, after about Greece, by default in the survival of the single currency. Klaus Regling, who runs most of the fund, told Bild-Zeitung in an interview published today that is big enough for all Member States.

Germany, which today ruled out expanding the fund, is resisting pressure from the European Commission to double its size, the newspaper Die Welt reported, without saying where it got the information.

Weber said in Berlin that if Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain were unable to refinance debt - a scenario considered unthinkable - € bailout funds would be 1070000000000.

140 million euros

Approximately EUR 925 billion already committed by the fund of 750 billion rescue package of 110 million euros of Greek aid to 65 million euros from the ECB bond purchases, leaving a deficit of about 140 million euros, said Weber. "The euro will fail as a result of this dispute."

Weber, who said the ECB should start withdrawing some of its emergency stimulus measures next year, said the government "will do what is necessary to see the euro continues."

The leading candidate to take over Jean-Claude Trichet as ECB chief next year, Weber supported the German government's proposals to create a permanent mechanism for crisis resolution once the bailout fund expires in 2013.

"In order not to distort incentives for investors, private creditors should not be relieved of his responsibility," said Weber, who heads Germany's Bundesbank. Future support for euro member states must be linked to "stringent conditions", and is used only "when the stability of monetary union as a whole is in danger," he said.

Ireland on November 21 applies to the European Union for a bailout to rescue its banking system. Weber said the ECB welcomes "Ireland's request for help and is" confident "the package will help stabilize the country's financial system.

Ready to draw Mortgages Foreign Demand Registration in Denmark

97 billion U.S. dollars of Denmark, the mortgage-bond auction is about to attract an unprecedented demand from international investors such as sovereign debt crisis of Europe is increasing appetite for top-level titles.

Nykredit Bank A / S, the country's largest issuer of debt, Denmark Realkredit and more of the nation's banks offer mortgage-linked bonds with maturities of one to five years in auctions beginning today. Foreign funds to buy up to 20 percent of the debt, a record and up 15 percent last year, according to Danske Bank A / S.

490 billion U.S. dollars of Denmark mortgage bond market, the third largest after the U.S. and Germany, proved resilient during the global financial crisis, with prices rising 6.57 percent in 2008, 7.1 percent in 2009 and 5.4 percent this year, according to Danske Bank Mortgage's index bond market. The titles offer an alternative to European government bonds hit by a debt crisis was spreading to the rescue for Greece and Ireland.

"There may be an incentive for foreign investors to have a higher focus on the Danish market compared to last year because of the turmoil in the European bond market," said John Madsen, the chief economist at Nykredit in Copenhagen. "The market in the Nordic countries, especially in the Danish market is in a more stable situation."

Danish banks tend to hold three auctions of bonds each year. In 2009 represented 25 percent of the mortgage bond market, according to government data. The sale in the next two weeks is the most important annual auctions where the securities are issued new rates for existing notes are reset. Small auctions in March and September resulted in $ 18 billion of the issue, according to Madsen Nykredit is.

Yield spread

Elsewhere in credit markets, the extra yield investors demand to own company bonds rather than government debt of similar maturity was unchanged at 169 basis points, or 1.69 percentage points, according to the World Bank Latin Merrill Lynch Corporate Market general index. Average yields of 3.7 percent.

The cost of insuring the euro-zone government bonds from default soared to records on concern the fiscal crisis is expanding, while Caterpillar Inc. sold 1 million yuan ($ 150 million) of debt in the second issue of Hong Kong by a U.S. company in China's currency. Gifts and accessories retailer Spencer Spirit Holdings Inc. was one of the borrowers to postpone debt sales.

Sovereign Swaps

The Markit iTraxx Index SovX Western Europe 15 governments contracts rose 3 basis points to a record 184, according to CMA. Spain increased 8 basis points to a record based on closing prices of 303 and Ireland rose 11.5 basis points to 591, after reaching a record.

China's first credit-default swaps denominated in yuan began operations in the interbank bond market as the country expands its financial system, according to the National Association of Institutional Investors in financial markets.

Four contracts guaranteed with a par value of RMB 480 million changed hands yesterday, the bond market regulator, said in a notice published on its website.

Swaps credit-default pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent of a company or country do not adhere to its debt agreements.

Cat Bonds

Caterpillar, the world's largest maker of construction equipment, sold two notes per cent in December 2012 in Hong Kong through its unit of Caterpillar Financial Services Corp. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. managed the sale of the Peoria company, based in Illinois, said a person familiar with the offering who declined to be identified because the market was private.

The operation followed McDonald's Corp. 's 200 million yuan in bonds to three years in September, the first sale in the currency by a foreign company in the former British colony, according to the data.

Spencer Spirit, gift and accessory retailer, withdrew its $ 150,000,000 sale of senior notes due in 2016, according to a person familiar with the deal who requested anonymity because the trade was private. At least six other companies in the U.S., most with scores of garbage, put away the expected sales of debt this week, the credit markets weakened amid growing concern about European levels of debt sovereign.

Tirado deals

In Asia, Hong Kong Electric Holdings Ltd., rated A, S & P's fifth highest investment grade, rated junk Yuzhou joined Properties Co. and Vietnam National Coal Industries in the withdrawal of bids, said people familiar with the operations, said.

Junk bonds are high risk, high yield debt rated below Baa3 by Moody's and below BBB-by Standard & Poor's.

Bonds Fairfield, Connecticut-based General Electric Co. were the most actively traded U.S. corporate securities by dealers, with 47 transactions of $ 1 million or more, according to Trace, the bond trading service of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

The S & P / LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 Index fell 0.05 cents to 91.8 cents, the fourth consecutive fall day Prices in the index, which measures the 100 largest dollar loans first lien leveraged, fell to its lowest level since November 3.

In emerging markets, yields fell 10 basis points related to 244 basis points, according to JP Morgan index. It was the biggest drop since Oct. 26.

Danish mortgage bonds

Denmark's mortgage bonds have not suffered a defect since they were introduced after the fire of Copenhagen in 1795 large. Mortgage lenders can not take customer deposits, so they use mortgage to raise funds and spread the risk of real estate loans.

"The Danish market for mortgage bonds is the only one that has survived without a scratch through the financial crisis," said Jens Kristian Kimper, Danmark Realkredit analyst, the mortgage unit of Danske Bank bonds and the second largest provider Denmark, the bonds after Nykredit A / S. "The interest of foreign investors is increasing."

The prices investors pay in the auctions to determine the rates lenders can charge. rate the central bank benchmark interest is 1.05 percent, compared with 1 percent for the European Central Bank and a range of zero to 0.25 percent for the Federal Reserve.

Danske Bank index of Danish mortgage bonds rose to 124,675 on November 23, approaching the record high of 125,642 on 12 October to 4 January to 118.3. the nation's mortgage bonds increased 23 percent since early 2007, the index shows.

"The liquidity of the Great '

"International investors can not get something similar in euro-land," said Jens Peter Soerensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank in Copenhagen. Danish mortgage bonds also "high liquidity," he said.

The event coincides with government bonds of the nation, who have returned this year by 10.5 percent on average, second only to the 14.8 percent increase in the debt of South Africa from the 26 markets followed by  European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies indexes.

Danish house prices rose 3.3 percent in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, the Copenhagen-based Association of Danish Mortgage Banks said in a statement on its website on October 26.

Denmark's economy will expand 2 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2011, compared with 1.7 percent and 1.5 percent growth for the 16 nations using the euro, IMF International said in its World Economic Outlook last month. Since June, the nation's currency, the crown has appreciated 8.83 percent.

The maximum rating

If mortgage debt "of well known names such as Nykredit offers some pickup compared to government bond rating remains AAA that could be attractive to money market funds," said Maud Debreuil-Chevroton, a fund manager Paris-based Axa Investment Managers. "The Danish mortgage bonds will enjoy the flight to quality of major international investors seeking risk away from the periphery of Europe."

Last year a record 115 billion U.S. dollars from the auction of mortgage bonds, said yields in the lowest level since the variable rate loan interest began 13 years ago, lenders including Danmark Realkredit said. Realkredit Denmark, the country's mortgage lender second largest, sold tickets for a year at an average yield of 1.78 percent and three-year bonds at 2.81 percent, the lowest since the values are introduced. The five-year notes sold at an average of 3.34 percent, at least since 2006.

Traders Raise Bets on Early Canada Rate Rise on Strong Data

The operators are increasing their bets that the Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney will resume interest rates as early as next quarter on speculation that the pessimism about the global economic recovery is exaggerated.

The yield on the June 2011 contract bankers acceptances, a barometer of expectations of short-term rates, rose 16 basis points in two days after a report showed inflation in Canada grew faster than the 23 economists in a  survey predicted. That's the biggest two-day hike from the Bank of Canada policy makers, last raised its benchmark rate during the night of September 8. The agreement ended 1.73 percent today, the highest since July 14.

Investors may be "underestimating" the chances that the Bank of Canada will raise rates next quarter, according to Morgan Stanley. Carney kept its key policy rate unchanged in October after three consecutive increases, citing a weak U.S. perspective. Since then, U.S. and Canada, the indicators suggest that growth could be picking up, which increases more likely.

"Canada has been delayed this year largely due to concerns over the U.S.," said Yilin Nie, strategist at Morgan Stanley in New York, in a telephone interview. "What we're seeing in the margin is to lift U.S. growth this quarter and continues to recover from entering next year."

Nie said that while investors are anticipating an increase in June, the central bank will have to resume raising rates sooner than that. "To the extent that the Canadian economy upside surprises then the path should surprise rate head too," said Nie.

Keeping fees

The Bank of Canada kept its key interest rate to 1 percent by the end of the second quarter, according to the median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by us this month. The October median forecast was for target up to 1.50 percent by then.

Elsewhere in credit markets, the extra yield investors demand to hold the debt of companies in Canada instead of the federal government stood at 135 basis points, or 1.35 percentage points, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data. Spreads reached 134 basis points, November 16, the narrowest gap since May. Corporate yields ended yesterday at 3.92 percent.

the relative return on U.S. corporate bonds ended November 23 at 177 basis points, Merrill data show. Corporate world extends 169 basis points.

Canadian corporate bonds lost 1.3 percent in November, prepared for the worst month since October 2008. U.S. debt company lost 0.6 percent in November. Global corporations also were up 0.6 percent through Nov. 19.

Cara Operations Ltd. paid 667 basis points over benchmark government to sell C $ 200 million of 9.125 percent bonds due in December 2015.

Provincial spreads

In the provincial bond markets, the relative yields fell 1 basis point to 52 basis points. They reached 51 basis points on November 16, the tightest spreads since April, as wide as 71 basis points on May 21. Yields increased to 3.29 percent from 3.21 percent the previous day.

provincial bonds have lost investors 2.2 percent this month, the biggest drop since February 1994. Canadian government bonds have fallen 1.9 percent in November.

Quebec will offer C $ 250 million of its 4.5 percent notes maturing in December 2019, bringing the total outstanding of $ C $ 5 million. Debt with a yield of 75.5 basis points over benchmark.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose 8 basis points to 3.19 percent yesterday, the highest since July 29 as the price of the value of 3.5 percent due June 2020 fell 69 cents to C $ 102.57 . The 10-year yield fell a basis point today to 3.18 percent.

Breakeven price

Canada equilibrium rates of 10 years, which measure the performance difference between inflation-indexed bonds and cash and expectations of price indicators, touched 2.31 percent yesterday, the highest since May 14 . Actual performance - production minus the annual inflation rate - widened yesterday to 0.74 percent from 0.3 percent in October. The difference touched 2.26 percentage points in June. The equilibrium rate was at 2.28 percent today.

Annual inflation accelerated to 2.4 percent in October from 1.9 percent in the previous month, Statistics Canada said on 23 November. The median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by us was for an advance of 2.2 percent.

Retail sales rose 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted C $ 36,400,000,000 in September, the fourth consecutive gain, led by automobiles and general merchandise stores. Economists surveyed  expected a 0.7 percent increase, according to the median of 22 estimates.

'Positive surprise'

The data are "having some influence" on higher expectations for rates, Mark Chandler, head of the Canadian currency and rates strategy at RBC Royal Bank of Canada Capital unit, said via e-mail. "Some positive surprises in the world, the decline of the Canadian dollar parity and the ability of commodities to keep still" are also contributing to the expectations.

Americans increased spending for the fifth month in October, the lowest amount of unemployment claims in more than two years last week and a measure of consumer confidence beat expectations, reporting U.S. showed yesterday.

Chandler said RBC is forecasting that the Bank of Canada to raise rates again in April, so "we believe that currency valuations are on the right."

The six months to a day rate of exchange index, a measure of what investors predict the central bank rate will average during that time, rose to 1.16 percent today, the highest since December 2008.

The March 2011 contract rose two bankers acceptance basis points to 1.55 percent today, the most since Sept. 24. Bax contracts have been established called an average of about 18 basis points above the target overnight central bank since 1992.

"We are basically pricing of almost 25 basis points of hiking in March," said David Love, a derivatives trader on interest rates at brokerage Montreal Le Groupe Jitney Inc., by email. "That's getting aggressive."

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Economy in U.S. Grew 2.5% in Third Quarter

The U.S. economy grew faster than estimated in the third quarter, led by stronger consumer spending and fueled by increased earned income that can stoke demand in 2011.

The revised 2.5 percent increase in gross domestic product compared with 2 percent estimate issued last month and increased 1.7 percent in the second quarter, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Consumer purchases rose at its fastest pace since the last quarter of 2006.

wages of workers in the six months to September were revised by approximately $ 59 million, giving the Americans can ramp up their spending ahead of Christmas shopping season. Along with gains in business investment in new equipment, the figures show an expansion in evolution brought more demand and less by the replenishment of inventories.

"You have a little stronger final sales - which is part of the report is very encouraging," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. "It makes me a little more comfortable with the sustainability of the recovery."

Separate figures from the National Association of Realtors showed that the economy is not without its setbacks. Sales of existing homes fell more than expected in October as foreclosure moratoriums and the lack of credit troubled U.S. housing market.

Purchases declined 2.2 percent to an annual rate of 4.43 million from 4.53 million in September. Economists had projected sales would fall to a pace of 4.48 million, according to the median forecast in a survey.

Shares decline

Stocks fell for a second day after the home sales report and after North Korea fired artillery shells on an island in South Korea. 500 of Standard & Poor's fell 1.5 percent to 1,180.12 at 12:29 pm in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which moves inversely to prices, fell to 2.75 percent from 2.80 percent late yesterday.

in the third quarter growth figures today showed greater gains in exports, consumer spending and business investment in new equipment than previously estimated.

Economists surveyed  projected growth rate increases to 2.4 percent, according to the median of 78 forecasts. The estimates ranged from 2 percent to 2.9 percent.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, grew at a rate of 2.8 percent per year in the third quarter, the Commerce Department figures showed. The gain compared with an increase of 2.6 percent previously reported and reflects an increase in purchases of used cars.

Wages revised upwards

Today's figures also showed that in the second quarter, wages and salaries increased at a revised 97.4 billion in the last three months of 2010 compared to 51.1 billion U.S. dollars initially reported. The figures incorporate new data, more complete Department of Labor. wages in the third quarter increased by 51.4 billion U.S. dollars, more than 38.4 billion U.S. dollars initially reported.

At the same time, corporate profits rose 2.8 percent after an increase of 3 percent in the second quarter, today's report showed. Revenue rose 28 percent from the same period last year.

"Families are getting a slightly larger share of the pie," said Feroli. "For a more balanced recovery is good to see that households are getting a little more."

Business spending on new equipment and software advanced at a rate of 16.8 percent last quarter, compared with an initial estimate of 12 percent, the GDP report showed today.

"Slow and Steady"

"Although we are not expecting a rapid improvement in the economic environment, there is a slow and steady recovery throughout the year" in 2011, Ronald Sargent, chief executive of Staples Inc., said in a teleconference on 18 November to discuss earnings for the world's largest retailer of office supplies. "The basic office supplies and computers and accessories were strong during the third quarter."

Federal Reserve policy makers are concerned about growth may not be strong enough to bring down an unemployment rate held at 9.6 percent last month.

Unemployment is currently "high and, given the slow pace of economic growth is likely to remain for some time," said the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke in a speech in Frankfurt on 19 November. Bernanke defended the additional $ 600 billion in monetary stimulus the Fed announced earlier this month.

preferred price gauge the Fed, which is tied to consumer spending and excluding food costs and energy, rose at an annual rate of 0.8 percent without review in the third quarter, down 1 percent increase over the previous quarter. longer-term projection of the central bank is a range of 1.7 percent to 2 percent.

Black Friday

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, said yesterday that it will match the prices listed in the notices of competition on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Savings start with the Thanksgiving Day special online on November 25 and runs until 27 November, offers electronic products, household items and clothing.

Bentonville, Arkansas, Wal-Mart is offering free shipping to nearly 60,000 households in rental items through its website, as it competes for budget-conscious buyers.

Wages and salaries in the second quarter rose almost double previous estimates

Wages and salaries in the second quarter rose almost double previous estimates, indicating the U.S. economy may have created more jobs.

Pay jumped by 97.4 billion U.S. dollars at an annual rate in the first quarter, compared with a previously reported 51.1 billion U.S. dollars of profit, revised figures for the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The data reflect a more complete explanation of employment and income that was available to the Department of Labor in the tabulation of the monthly job.

"There was a bit more employment of the monthly payroll survey certainly suggested," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, in an interview. While bonus payments may have been responsible for similar reviews in previous years, reflecting the financial industry "boom", and the improvement is likely to lead to greater gains in total employment, "said Stanley.

Today's Commerce Department report also showed a bigger increase in the neighborhood of recent consumer spending than previously estimated, and the savings were also reviewed, showing how the income gains are helping families repair tattered finances. Hewlett-Packard Co. is one of the companies say they are planning to boost pay, while Citigroup Inc. is among those who say that adding more workers.

need for households to rebuild savings "is longer than we thought it was," said Stanley. "I see healthy consumer spending next year than this year."

Raise wages

Wages increased by another 51.4 billion U.S. dollars between July and September, culminating a 2.8 percent gain in the last four quarters and the best record of the year-on annual performance since mid-2008. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, rose at a rate of 2.8 percent annually, the most in almost four years, today's report showed.

The savings rate, or proportion of household disposable income were able to middle distance, rose to 6.2 percent in the second quarter and was 5.8 percent in the period July to September, today's report showed. The data was revised upward from previous estimates of 5.9 percent and 5.5 percent respectively.

"We are building a good track for 2011," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, in an interview. "Corporate profits have been pointing to a stronger labor market than we've seen at this time. Over time we will have some strong numbers."

Earnings rose 2.8 percent last quarter from the previous three months, and have been doing every quarter since the first three months of 2009, the Commerce Department today showed.

Christmas Shopping

Retailers are planning a Christmas shopping period are driving better and discounts to attract more consumers to the stores. The National Retail Federation has forecast sales for November and December holiday will increase by 2.3 percent from a year ago, the most since 2006.

HP, the world's largest maker of computers, yesterday's earnings forecast for the period ending in January that topped analysts' forecasts as companies replace aging PCs and other equipment. The firm raises salaries restore the fiscal year, the chief executive Leo Apotheker said.

Employers added 151,000 workers to their payrolls in October, the first gain in five months, the Labor Department reported this month. Measures of hours worked and wages also increased. The government will release its November report next week.

Census Subdivision

Today, reviews of income derived from a quarterly census of employment and wages based on tax records covering almost all employers, making them the most accurate representation of what is happening in the labor market. The monthly payroll numbers are based on a survey of about 140,000 companies covering 410,000 workplaces, covering approximately one third of the total payroll.

Not all economists were optimistic about increasing revenue. With companies unable to raise prices and the families who still need to repair their balance sheets, companies want to control their expenses and limit hiring, said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist MFR Inc. in New York.

"Companies will do everything possible to minimize increases in labor costs," said Shapiro.