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Friday, November 26, 2010

U.S. Chase Black Friday shoppers Offers Best Buy,

At 2 pm yesterday, with a steady rain falling, Andrés Sánchez was huddled in a tent outside Best Buy Co. 's Union Square store in New York.

The student, 23 years old, had ignored his friends when he said he was "crazy" to line up early.

After having declined in the past two years, Sanchez wanted to buy a laptop when Richfield, Minnesota-based Best Buy doors opened at 5 am today. Among his specialties doorbuster, the world's leading retailer of electronics offers a Sony Vaio laptop with a built-in Blu-ray disc Karate Kid and bag $ 500, a 32 percent savings.

"I have the best Christmas," said Sanchez, who plans to spend $ 2,000 this season at himself and his family, or about four times as much as last year.

Similar scenes play across the U.S. as "Black Friday, the biggest shopping day of the year, had its earliest start yet. Buyers are taking advantage of offers and they face a slower recovery than expected economy.

Retailers, Black Friday - so named because when many stores are profitable - as a benchmark for the entire holiday season.

"I think it will be the biggest Black Friday we had," Toys "R" Us Inc. CEO Jerry Storch said in a telephone interview on 24 November. "Everyone has focused on lowering prices and these prices can not be repeated."

U.S. Retail started hanging and Black Friday specials on Thanksgiving morning. Stores operated by Hoffman Estates, Illinois-based Sears Holdings Corp. opened at 7 am

'Economy Better

Twenty minutes after the Sears store in Whitehall, New York was opened yesterday, about the same number of buyers and sellers were mixed in the electronics department.

Wild Bill Jr., a retired auto mechanic near Allentown had just bought a 58 inch Panasonic plasma TV Corp. HD for $ 1044, 55% discount on list price of $ 2299. His son Brian said he was planning a major purchase for the holidays, Apple Inc. IPAD for his girlfriend.

"It feels as if the economy is beginning to improve," said Bill Savage.

Toys "R" Us Inc., the world's largest retailer of toys, opened at 10 am on Thanksgiving Day with over 200 doorbusters and free safe Crayola delivered as gifts with purchases. The chain of Wayne, New Jersey, moved its opening time from midnight onwards because customers said they wanted to go shopping after the Thanksgiving dinner, according to Storch.

Consumer rebound

analyst forecasts for holiday sales ranging from a few changes to increases of up to 4.5 percent. The Retail Federation predicts an increase of 2.3 percent to 447.1 billion U.S. dollars after rising 0.4 percent last year and a fall of 3.9 percent in 2008.

These forecasts are in line with a rebound in U.S. consumer spending this year when the economy began adding jobs. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 2.8 percent per year in the third quarter, the Commerce Department. That was the fastest since the last three months of 2006.

Same-store sales, a key indicator, and new closed areas are excluded, rose for 14 consecutive months through October. Same-store sales for November and December may advance as much as 3.5 percent, the biggest increase since 2006, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

"Many retailers are back in the black, even before Black Friday," said Adrianne Shapira, an analyst at Goldman Sachs in New York, on Television "InBusiness" show on 24 November. "Sales have been improving, even in early November, so that the momentum to continue into the weekend and during the holiday season."

Kohl's Corp. and Costco Wholesale Corp. is one of the highest-performing retailers, according to Shapira.

Black Friday was the biggest shopping day in 2009, with $ 18 billion in sales, according to MasterCard spending pulse, which is headquartered in Purchase, New York. That may increase this year from 31 percent of consumers plan to buy that day, up from 26 percent a year earlier, according to the group of shopping centers.

European Economic Recovery Strengthens for 2nd Month,

The economic recovery in the euro area was strengthened in November for the second consecutive month executives and business consumers became more optimistic about the prospects, the index showed EuroCoin.

The monthly index measuring economic expansion in the 16 nations sharing the single currency rose to 0.45 percent from 0.41 percent in October, the London-based Centre for Economic Policy Research and Bank of Italy , who co-produce the index, said in a faxed statement today.

"The increase was primarily due to improved business and consumer confidence," the statement said. This month's level indicates a growth rate of just under 2 percent. "

The index, which includes figures on prices and stock market performance, industrial production, business and the reading of consumer confidence, is to provide a real-time estimate of economic growth, the report said.

European Stocks, U.S. Futures Drop on Debt Concern

European stocks and U.S. futures index fell amid growing concern about the debt crisis in Europe and China's measures to cool inflation, while tensions between North and South Korea increased. Asian stocks also fell.

Banco Santander SA fell 4.3 percent, the rate of a sell-off in Spanish lenders. Rio Tinto Group fell 3.1 percent, stocks lower resource base. Actelion Ltd. lost 2.4 percent as UBS AG downgraded the shares of Swiss pharmaceutical company. Givaudan SA, Luxottica Group SpA and Puma AG each fell more than 1.5 percent of Morgan Stanley recommends that investors reduce their holdings of the three populations.

The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1.1 percent to 264.85 at 12:35 pm in London. The meter is headed for a third week of declines as investors speculated that the region can not contain its sovereign debt crisis. 500 of Standard & Poor's Index lost 1 percent before reopening the U.S. market after the feast of Thanksgiving yesterday.

"There is a combination of negative news that is loaded to the market today," said Christian Falkner, an analyst at Alfa Wertpapierhandels AG in Frankfurt. "On one hand, the statements of Kim Jong Il on the possibility of war in Korea and speculation, moreover, that Portugal can be urged to take advantage of the Stability Fund. Investors are also worried about inflation in China. Financial stocks were especially hurt today. "

Rallies VStoxx

VStoxx Index, which measures the cost of protecting against a decline of contributions in the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 12 percent to 28.36. The indicator is aimed at an increase of 29 percent this week, the biggest gain since May.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2 percent in North Korea warned that the military exercises in South Korea to the U.S. Peninsula will have the "brink of war," according to state news agency KCNA. North Korea threatened a "rain of fire terrible" that the U.S. and South Korea to violate its sovereignty.

explosive shots coming from the direction of North Korea, were heard in South Korea Yeonpyeong Island at about 15:10 today, a spokesman for South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff who requested anonymity, citing military policy. The Army is investigating, he said.

South Korea may appoint a new defense minister today after Kim Tae Young resigned following shelling of North Korea in the territory of the South for the first time in half a century this week.

China's inflation

Chinese stocks fell for the first time in three days, led by banks and developers after Shanghai Securities News said the government can reduce the rate of new loans next year.

Chinese policy makers have stepped up measures in recent weeks to curb inflation that reached 4.4 percent last month, the fastest pace in two years. The nine banks analysts surveyed by our reportes last week predicted the central bank will increase borrowing costs for the second time later this year.

The cost of insuring the debt of the Portuguese and Spanish government against default rose to record levels based on closing prices, according to data provider CMA. Swaps credit-default in Portugal increased 13 basis points to 489, and contracts in Spain rose 3.5 basis points to 303.

Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos said that EU governments can not impose a rescue plan in his country even when speculation mounted that Portugal will eventually have to request one.

Avoid rescue

By putting pressure on the Portuguese government, the European Central Bank and the countries monetary union in order to avoid a bailout of Spain, Financial Times Deutschland, citing unidentified people within the Ministry of Finance of Germany. Portugal faces a final vote in parliament today on its 2011 spending plan that includes measures to cut its deficit.

Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University who predicted the global financial crisis, sees a 35 percent chance that Greece will leave the euro, with the possibility to increase over the next five years, Austria Format magazine, citing a interview.

National benchmarks fell in all 18 western European markets except Iceland. Britain's FTSE 100 Index lost 1.4 percent and Germany's DAX, the index fell 1.3 percent, while France's CAC 40 retreated 1.7 percent rate. IBEX 35, Spain fell 2.4 percent.

Banks decline

An indicator of banking shares fell 2.7 percent, the worst performance among 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600. Santander, Spain's biggest bank, fell 4.3 percent to 7.48 euros. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA lost 4.1 percent to 7.43 euros. BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank, fell 4.6 percent to € 47.54, extending the longest streak in nearly two months fall.

Lloyds Banking Group Plc, the largest UK mortgage lender, fell 4.9 percent to 61.56 pence, the biggest drop in the Stoxx 600. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc fell 4.8 percent to 38.89 pence.

Bank of Ireland, Ireland's largest bank, slid 3.1 percent to 24.8 cents, extending its weekly decline of 48 percent, the highest since January 2009.

Rio Tinto Group slid 3.1 percent to 4,138.5 pence, even after the world's third largest mining company said its iron ore unit will increase production by 50 percent over five years. One indicator of the basic industries of resources was one of the worst performers in the Stoxx 600, falling 2.1 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, retreated 2.6 percent to 2,292 pence, base metal prices fell in London.

Vedanta Resources Plc fell 4.3 percent to 2,051 pence. Standard & Poor's could lower your credit score from the mining company controlled by billionaire Anil Agarwal, if its proposed acquisition of a controlling stake in Cairn India Ltd. is approved.

Actelion, Daily Mail

Actelion, the manufacturer of drugs that may attract a takeover bid by Amgen Inc., lost 2.4 percent to 53.65 Swiss francs, UBS cut its rating on the shares to "neutral" from "buy." The stock has risen 36 percent since Sept. 30.

Daily Mail & General Trust Plc fell 1.1 percent to 538.5 pence. The stock, which plunged 3.5 percent yesterday after reporting sales that missed estimates, cut to "neutral" from "buy" at UBS.

Puma, the sporting goods maker controlled by PPR SA, fell 3 percent to 230 euros. Givaudan, the world's largest manufacturer of flavors and fragrances, fell 1.7 percent to 1,015 francs. Luxottica, which owns Ray-Ban and Oakley sunglasses, fell 1.6 percent to € 20.59. The three stocks were downgraded to "weight" by Morgan Stanley.

Inditex, Kingfisher

Inditex, owner of the Zara and Massimo Dutti, fell 3.2 percent to € 57.96 and Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research downgraded the stock to "neutral" from "buy."

Kingfisher, Europe's largest home improvement retailer, fell 2.3 percent to 243.8 pence after being cut to "underperform" from "neutral" by the brokerage.

Technip SA, Europe's second largest provider of oilfield services, fell 2.5 percent to € 61.28. The stock was reduced to "equal weight" from "overweight" by Morgan Stanley.

Porsche lost 4.4 percent to € 56.67, the biggest decline in more than two weeks. The automaker rose for seven consecutive days, adding 27 percent.

Sky Deutschland AG rose 4.2 percent to 1.57 euros at Morgan Stanley raised its rating on the stock to "overweight."

Falling the gold in New York.

Gold fell in New York, peel a weekly gain, as a stronger dollar curbed demand for the metal as an alternative investment. Other precious metals fell.

The dollar rose against the yen as North Korea's state Korean Central News Agency said planned naval exercises in South Korea and the U.S. moved from the peninsula closer to the brink of war. " The dollar rose to a two-month high against the euro amid concerns of European sovereign debt burdens are getting worse. Gold, which reached a record $ 1424.30 an ounce on 09 November, usually moves inversely to the U.S. currency.

"The bullion prices have been under pressure as a result of decreased sensitivity to risk," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, in a report. However, gold may "continue to be supported by investment bargain hunting as investors seek to diversify the volatile macro-economic context and geopolitical."

Gold futures for February delivery lost 13.60 dollars, or 1 percent, to $ 1,361.40 an ounce at 8:01 am on the Comex in New York. Prices have risen 0.7 percent this week. Floor trading was closed yesterday for Thanksgiving in the U.S. and electronic commerce are booked today for settlement purposes. The metal for immediate delivery in London was 1.1 percent, to $ 1,360.60.

Bullion fell to $ 1,366.50 an ounce in the morning "fix" in London, used by some mining companies to sell production, from $ 1,373.25 in the afternoon yesterday fixing.

Ireland Rescue

The financial costs of the most indebted countries in the euro region are rising acceptance of Ireland as a rescue of its banking sector fuels speculation that other countries will have to seek help. The Financial Times Deutschland reported that those responsible for the euro area policy are pushing to Portugal to seek help from a 750 million euros (991 billion U.S. dollars) bailout fund. The country is not being pressured to use the facility, an official in the office of Prime Minister Jose Socrates said.

Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said yesterday that while the size of a rescue of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund has not yet been determined, an amount of about 85 million euros "mentioned." The government said this week that will reduce spending by 20 percent and raise taxes in the next four years.

"We are following the euro, to some extent and the euro has become a weak point," said Darren Heathcote, head of trading at Investec Bank (Australia) Ltd. The Korean War "is still on the back of the head people. There is a possibility of new conflicts and is helping to support gold. "

"Confrontation Staggered"

President Barack Obama has sent an aircraft carrier to participate in military exercises in the Yellow Sea in a show of strength after North Korea this week bombed a South Korean island. North Korea warned that any "confrontation escalated" will lead to war, KCNA, said in an emailed statement.

explosive shots coming from the direction of North Korea, were heard in South Korea Yeonpyeong Island today, said a spokesman for South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff who declined to be identified, citing military policy. The Army is investigating, he said.

Eleven out of 15 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by us, or 73 percent, said the metal will rise next week. A forecast of lower prices and three were neutral.

Silver for March delivery in New York fell 3.1 percent to $ 26.75 an ounce. It peaked at $ 29.34 30 years on November 9 and 59 percent this year.

Platinum for January delivery was 0.9 percent, to $ 1643.20 an ounce. Palladium for March delivery fell 4.1 percent to $ 669.10 an ounce.

Less treasury bonds sold from May returns After Jump

Brazil is on sale this month the least amount of local bonds since May as a tax increase for foreign investors and speculation that the central bank will raise interest rates next year eroded demand for the securities.

The government has sold 19.5 billion reais ($ 11.3 billion) dollars in bonds in November, including 5.1 billion reais in the auction yesterday, after the issuance of 38.2 billion reais worth of securities in October. It sold 13.4 billion reais of debt in May, when the debt crisis of Europe increasingly pushing up yields in emerging markets.

Yields on benchmark bonds due in 2021 rose to a maximum of six months was 12.77 percent this week after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva tripled a tax on purchases of foreign debt to 6 percent last month to curb investment and the mother of a manifestation of foreign exchange. The yield has increased 54 basis points since the first of two increases in the IOF called on 4 October, nearly double the increase of 29 basis points in bond yields similar to the maturity of the Mexican peso during that time.

"All I've managed to do is that the cost of financing more expensive," Edwin Gutierrez, who helps manage $ 6 billion in emerging market debt at Aberdeen Management Plc in London, including Brazilian local debt. "The market is not happy now with the course of politics in Brazil and is expressed displeasure in the bond market."

The government sold bonds due in 2021 at an average yield of 12.36 percent and maturing in 2017 to 12.18 percent yesterday. He rejected all offers of securities maturing in 2015.

'Temporary'

Deputy Treasury Secretary Paulo Valle said the government has reduced its sales of fixed rate debt to avoid "put pressure on the market."

"This is temporary," Valle said in a telephone interview from Brasilia. "These values were well quoted volatility before collected."

Brazil will have to pass the sales of a backup to avoid cutting into their cash reserves, Vivienne said Taber, who helps manage $ 5 billion in emerging market debt at Investec Asset Management in Cape Town. Investec cut its "overweight" position in Brazil's bonds after the tax increase, he said.

"You can not have your cake and eat it," Taber said in a telephone interview. "No one can say that we want the flow to enter, but not too fast. I could probably wait a couple of months, but sooner or later must return to the market."

The government is not concerned about its cash position, equivalent to about six months worth of principal payments on debt, "said Fernando Garrido, head of the Public Debt Operations Department of the Treasury.

Overseas sales

"It makes no sense that this fall in the long run, sales of fixed rate bonds in November will make the lack of liquidity in the future," Garrido said in a telephone interview from Brasilia. "The Treasury has no liquidity problems."

He said the authorities may consider selling more real linked bonds abroad, where yields are lower than in the local market.

Last month the government issued one billion reais of bonds due in 2028 at its first foreign offer in the local currency debt in three years. The bonds yielded 8.85 percent, below the performance of yesterday's auction of bonds due in 2021, the longest maturity of fixed rate in the Brazilian market.

Local bonds also fell as traders bet Alexandre Tombini begin raising the benchmark interest rate to curb inflation in his first month as central bank president in January. The president-elect, Dilma Rousseff, nominated Tombini, a central bank director since 2005, Nov. 24 to replace Henrique Meirelles.

Inflation collection

The annual inflation rate rose to 5.2 percent in October, above the central bank's target of 4.5 percent as a jump of 27 percent in public spending in the first nine months of the year boosted demand consumers. Central banks have kept the benchmark rate at 10.75 percent in July after rising 200 basis points over a period of four months to cool the fastest expansion since the 1980s in Latin America's largest economy.

Yields rate futures overnight due in January 2012 have increased 35 basis points, or 0.35 percentage point from November 17 to 11.93 percent at 8:09 am New York time, traders expect the bank showing the rate increase to about 12.75 percent by the end of 2011. Tombini, 46, declined to comment on the outlook for rates at a press conference in Brasilia on November 24.

"At some point, the market is saying that inflation will begin to affect the performance requirement," said Enrique Alvarez, head of Latin America fixed income research at IDEAglobal in New York, in a telephone interview. "The rates at some point will have to move higher."

"Overheating" economy

The cost of protecting debt of the nation against non-payment for five years with credit default swaps, had climbed 3 basis points to 112 this week through yesterday, according to data compiled by CMA. Swaps credit-default pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent of a government or a company fail to adhere to its debt agreements.

The extra yield investors demand to own Brazilian dollar bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries rose 4 basis points this week to 181 today, according to JPMorgan.

The real fell 0.3 percent to 1.7274 per dollar today from 1.7265 yesterday. It has gained 1 percent this year after rising 33 percent in 2009, helping push the country's current account deficit of 12 months to a record $ 48 billion.

The economy will expand 7.6 percent this year after shrinking 0.2 percent in 2009, according to the median forecast in a central bank survey of economists released on November 22.

While Brazil's gross domestic product is growing, there is growing concern that global economic expansion falters after Ireland joined to Greece this month in the organization of an aid package to cover its financing needs. Ireland's long-term debt rating was reduced to two steps by Standard & Poor's Nov. 23 to AA-, undercutting demand for emerging market debt.

Brazil, the "economy is overheating now, to be honest," Gutierrez said of Aberdeen. "They have to be stricter policy is not what the market is signaling that disapproval. The environment of global risk aversion has also contributed to the problem."